Thai 25% Broken Rice Market Report October 2026: Price Rally Stalls, Establishing a New Baseline

Entering the month of October 2026 (01/10/2026 – 31/10/2026), the global rice export market continues to record significant divergence across different grain grades. Notably, the low-to-medium grade segment, particularly Thai 25% broken rice, is attracting special attention from international traders and major importers. Following a price correction last month, the market entered October with a trend of accumulation and stabilization around the 461.00 USD/ton threshold (equivalent to approximately 11,937,365 VND/ton). The following article provides a comprehensive overview of the Thai 25% broken rice market internationally and in Vietnam, while deeply analyzing the supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors currently governing price levels.

Overview of Thai 25% Broken Rice Price Data Entering October 2026

According to actual transaction market data, the free-on-board (FOB Bangkok) offer price for Thai 25% broken rice is anchored at 461.00 USD/ton. This price level reflects relative stability after an increase of +3.13% (corresponding to an increase of +14.00 USD/ton or +362,523 VND/ton) compared to the previous month's average price of 447.00 USD/ton (approximately 11,574,842 VND/ton).

The price volatility range over the last 30 days has fluctuated between 447.00 – 461.00 USD/ton. After breaking out of the 447 USD/ton support zone, the price trend has leveled off and established a solid accumulation base at the 461 USD/ton mark. The current trend is assessed as flat to neutral, creating a cautious sentiment for both buyers and sellers as the market prepares for the main harvest (Main Crop) in Southeast Asia.

Market Landscape: Thai 25% Rice Prices in Vietnam and the World

1. Global Market: The Race for Market Share in the 25% Broken Segment

In the international market, the 25% broken rice segment is a high-liquidity commodity, primarily serving low-to-middle-income countries in Africa, several South Asian nations, and the Southeast Asian market (such as Indonesia and the Philippines). At 461.00 USD/ton, Thai 25% broken rice maintains a moderate price gap compared to similar grades from India and Pakistan. This price reflects a slight recovery in essential food demand in sub-Saharan African countries following a period of supply disruption.

However, international importers are still maintaining a "wait-and-see" approach, signing only short-term spot contracts to meet immediate needs rather than long-term forward contracts. The anticipation of the year-end harvest in Asia is currently capping the upward momentum of Thai rice at the 465 USD/ton resistance level.

2. Vietnam Market: Correlation and Impact on Processing Raw Materials

In Vietnam, 25% broken rice is not only a direct competitor in the export market but also serves as an important raw material for food processing, noodle production, and animal feed manufacturing. As the price of Thai 25% broken rice hits the equivalent of 11.94 million VND/ton:

• Regarding exports: Vietnam's 25% broken rice retains a significant competitive advantage due to optimized production costs and flexible intra-regional logistics costs. Vietnamese exporters have leveraged the price gap with Thailand to boost shipments to Indonesia and traditional markets.
• Regarding domestic consumption: The converted import price of nearly 12 million VND/ton (excluding taxes and port fees) makes it difficult for Thai 25% broken rice to penetrate deep into Vietnam's domestic processing plants. Instead, domestic processors prioritize using secondary rice sources and broken rice from the Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter crops in the Mekong Delta to optimize input costs.

Analysis of Volatility Causes: Drivers Behind the 3.13% Increase

The 14 USD/ton increase that pushed the rice price from 447.00 USD to 461.00 USD/ton is not a random occurrence, but the result of a combination of technical and field factors:

• Shrinking Ending Stocks: September and early October each year mark the transition period between crop seasons in Thailand. Inventory from the previous season has gradually depleted, while the main crop has not yet entered the peak harvest stage. The supply available for immediate delivery at Bangkok ports and the Chao Phraya River delta has tightened, forcing millers to raise their offer prices.
• Pressure from Thai Domestic Paddy Prices: Thai farmers tend to hoard stock, expecting government price support programs for temporary storage as fertilizer and fuel costs during the past season remained high. This has forced Thai exporters to increase their FOB offer prices to preserve profit margins.
• Increased Demand for National Reserve Replenishment: Several major importers in Southeast Asia continue to open tenders to supplement their strategic rice reserves to cope with global geopolitical instability. This unexpected demand absorbed most of the floating supply in the market during September, providing the push to bring prices to 461 USD/ton.

Macroeconomic Factors Governing the Rice Market

The global agricultural market in October 2026 is being profoundly affected by the global macroeconomic environment, particularly variables related to currency, trade policy, and weather:

1. Exchange Rate Fluctuations (USD/THB and USD/VND)

The Thai Baht (THB) has shown signs of relative strengthening against the USD due to a strong recovery in Thailand's tourism service trade surplus. As the local currency strengthens, Thai rice exporters are forced to price their USD offers higher to compensate for paddy procurement costs calculated in Baht. This is one of the biggest barriers preventing the price of Thai rice 25% broken from falling significantly, despite intense competitive pressure from rivals.

2. Import-Export Policies of Food Powerhouses

India's rice export management policy remains the most important macroeconomic variable affecting the global price list. Moves to loosen or tighten non-basmati rice export taxes from New Delhi frequently create waves of speculation. In the context where India continues to cautiously control export volumes to ensure domestic food security, the export price of Thai 25% broken rice finds a solid psychological support point around the 450 - 460 USD/ton threshold.

3. Global Energy and Shipping Costs

Global crude oil prices remaining at high levels have kept freight rates and container fuel surcharges expensive. For a commodity with a relatively low value per ton like 25% broken rice, transport costs account for a significant proportion of the CIF price structure. This indirectly inhibits long-haul trade volumes to West Africa, keeping trade flows confined to neighboring markets in the region.

Market Trend Forecast and Strategic Recommendations

Based on current variables, in the coming weeks of October 2026, the price of Thai 25% broken rice is forecast to continue fluctuating sideways within a narrow range of 455.00 – 465.00 USD/ton. A strong upward trend is unlikely to continue as pressure from new crop supply will begin to increase gradually by the end of October and early November.

For market participants:

• Vietnamese Exporters: Should take advantage of the period when Thai rice prices are anchored high to close spot orders with traditional import partners; simultaneously, closely monitor the progress of the early Winter-Spring rice harvest to have a reasonable bidding strategy for contracts in the first quarter of next year.
• Importers and Processors: Should limit signing long-term forward purchase contracts at prices exceeding 460 USD/ton. The safest strategy at present is to maintain average buffer inventory levels, waiting for signals of price adjustments when Thailand's main crop supply floods the market at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026.

In general, the Thai 25% broken rice market in October 2026 reflects a fragile balance between input cost pressure and the cautious purchasing power of the international market. Closely monitoring macroeconomic developments and weekly price indices will be the key to helping businesses optimize business efficiency during this pivotal time.