Palm Kernel Oil Market Report October 2026: Firmly Anchored at Record High of $2,355/Ton Amid Supply Challenges

The global vegetable oil market in October 2026 recorded highly positive developments, yet presented significant challenges for industrial raw material buyers. In particular, Crude Palm Kernel Oil (CPKO) continued to assert its solid position with price margins establishing a new peak. Market data aggregated for the period from 01/10/2026 to 31/10/2026 shows that the price of global palm kernel oil maintained a stable trend around the $2,355.00/ton threshold (equivalent to approximately 60,987,435 VND/ton), an increase of +4.02% (corresponding to a net increase of $91.00/ton, approximately 2,356,627 VND/ton) compared to the previous month's average of $2,264.00/ton.

The following analysis clarifies the global supply-demand landscape, reflects the direct impact on the Vietnamese market, and identifies the macroeconomic variables currently governing the palm kernel oil price level in October 2026.

1. Overview of global and Vietnamese palm kernel oil prices in October 2026

Throughout October 2026, the palm kernel oil market traded within a 30-day range of $2,264.00 - $2,355.00/ton. Although the pace of price increases was not as explosive as in previous crisis periods, the firm anchoring of the price at $2,355.00/ton indicates very strong underlying demand, despite concerns regarding rising input costs for downstream manufacturing enterprises.

• Global market: CPKO export prices at major ports in Indonesia (FOB Belawan/Dumai) and Malaysia (FOB Pasir Gudang) maintained stability at high margins. Tightness in palm kernel supply at local crushing mills kept international traders' offer prices consistently high. Furthermore, the price premium between palm kernel oil and coconut oil – the two primary oils in the lauric group – continued to narrow, leading to strong pressure for supply substitution.
• Vietnamese market: Due to heavy reliance on imports from Southeast Asia, the domestic market immediately reflected this upward momentum. The import price of refined palm kernel oil (RBD Palm Kernel Oil) arriving at Ho Chi Minh City and Hai Phong ports fluctuated around 61,500,000 – 63,000,000 VND/ton (including taxes and storage costs). Domestic manufacturers of cosmetics, surfactants, and confectionery are facing significant pressure from rising production costs this month.

2. Analysis of core causes for price volatility in October 2026

The +4.02% growth and the resilience of the $2,355.00/ton price level throughout October 2026 stem from a combination of seasonal factors and supply chain restructuring:

Firstly, palm kernel production decreased due to biological cycles and adverse weather: The fourth quarter is typically when oil palm regions in Sumatra, Kalimantan (Indonesia), and the Malay Peninsula enter the rainy season with heavy rainfall. Localized extreme weather in October hindered the harvesting of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) and the transport of palm kernels to crushing facilities. The Palm Kernel Extraction Rate decreased slightly compared to expectations, directly limiting the supply of crude palm kernel oil to the market.

Secondly, stable demand from the oleochemical industry: Unlike Crude Palm Oil (CPO), which is primarily used for food and biofuel, palm kernel oil contains a high content of lauric acid (similar to coconut oil) and is an irreplaceable raw material in the production of soap, detergents, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals. Entering October, cosmetic factories in Asia and Europe actively procured raw materials to fulfill year-end production orders and holiday season demand, providing a solid support for CPKO prices.

Thirdly, the shortage of supplementary coconut oil: Coconut oil production from the Philippines – a leading exporter – recorded a slow recovery in the third quarter and October 2026 due to the impact of tropical storms. Consequently, factories were forced to return to using palm kernel oil as the most viable alternative, pushing the aggregate demand for the lauric oil segment higher.

3. Impact of global macroeconomic factors

The palm kernel oil market does not operate in isolation but is strongly influenced by global macroeconomic movements during October 2026:

Bioenergy policy in Indonesia: The Indonesian government continues to push its mandatory biofuel blending roadmap (Biofuel Mandate B40/B50). Although this program primarily consumes Crude Palm Oil (CPO), it creates a ripple effect. As land area and crushing capacity are prioritized for the energy supply chain, resources for the processing and sorting of export palm kernels are diverted, indirectly keeping CPKO prices at peak levels.

Exchange rates and monetary policy: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable, but the domestic currencies of importing countries (including the VND) faced certain exchange rate pressures. The price of $2,355.00/ton, when converted to local currency, pushed costs in VND to nearly 61 million VND/ton, forcing importers in Vietnam to be more cautious in opening L/Cs and restructuring forward contracts to hedge against exchange rate risks.

4. Market outlook and procurement strategy recommendations

Entering the final period of 2026, the palm kernel oil market is forecast to be unlikely to see deep declines, as supply cannot improve significantly before the rainy season ends in the first quarter of next year. Experts forecast that the price range in November 2026 will continue to fluctuate and accumulate between $2,320.00 – $2,400.00/ton.

Given the market's high price environment, enterprises in Vietnam should note the following:

• Flexible inventory management: Avoid excessive stockpiling of raw materials at high prices at this time. Enterprises should maintain a safe inventory level for a 30 - 45 day cycle to limit working capital pressure.
• Use of risk hedging tools: Utilize forward contracts and commodity options to lock in import prices ahead of unexpected fluctuations in freight rates and USD/VND exchange rates.
• Optimization of production formulas: Manufacturers of animal feed or chemicals may consider flexible blending of different oil types depending on price correlations at any given time to reduce production costs.

In summary, October 2026 closed with the palm kernel oil price landscape maintaining a stable, high state at $2,355.00/ton. Close coordination between monitoring actual supply-demand and macroeconomic variables will be the key to helping businesses make optimal procurement decisions for the remainder of 2026.