Rapeseed Oil Market in October 2026: Accumulation Around 1,440 USD/Ton Under New Crop Pressure

Entering the month of October 2026 (from 01/10/2026 to 31/10/2026), the international agricultural market in general and the vegetable oil complex in particular are witnessing notable adjustments. Among these, rapeseed oil (Rapeseed Oil/Canola Oil) has recorded a relatively stable trading status following the strong volatility seen at the beginning of the third quarter. The shaping of new crop supplies in the Northern Hemisphere, combined with multidimensional macroeconomic impacts, has led rapeseed oil prices to establish a temporary equilibrium zone.

1. Trends in global and Vietnamese rapeseed oil prices in October 2026

Updated data from global commodity exchanges and actual trading figures show that rapeseed oil prices are currently anchored at 1,440.00 USD/ton (equivalent to approximately 37,257,120 VND/ton). Compared to the previous month's average of 1,474.00 USD/ton (approximately 38,136,802 VND/ton), this commodity has recorded a net decrease of 34.00 USD/ton, corresponding to a slight adjustment rate of approximately 2.31%.

Within the last 30-day range, rapeseed oil prices fluctuated within a narrow band from 1,440.00 USD to 1,474.00 USD/ton. The trend status is defined by experts as stable and accumulating. The market has ended its streak of deep downward adjustments to move sideways, seeking a new equilibrium point around the psychological resistance level of 1,450 USD/ton.

In the Vietnamese market, rapeseed oil primarily serves the demand for high-end food processing, bottled refined cooking oil production, and applications in certain cosmetic and chemical industries. Due to complete reliance on imports from Canada, the EU, and Australia, spot rapeseed oil prices at domestic ports (CIF Hai Phong and CIF Ho Chi Minh City) directly reflect the downward trend of international prices. Converted at the current exchange rate, import prices at the port fluctuate around the 37.25 - 38.00 million VND/ton threshold (excluding VAT and domestic storage and distribution costs).

2. Analysis of core causes for rapeseed oil price volatility

The decline of approximately 34 USD/ton from last month's peak and the maintenance of the 1,440 USD/ton accumulation zone in October 2026 stem from the interaction between various supply and demand factors on the international stage:

• Harvest progress in Canada and Europe: October marks the end of the canola harvest in Canada's prairie provinces (Saskatchewan, Alberta) and the post-harvest processing phase in the European Union (EU). Although some areas experienced localized drought, total production did not decline as severely as previous pessimistic forecasts suggested. The abundant flow of rapeseed to crushing plants has quenched the thirst for spot supply, putting downward pressure on finished oil prices.
• Intense competition from palm oil and soybean oil: The global vegetable oil market is highly interconnected. In October 2026, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia entered the peak of the Q3-Q4 production cycle, pulling global palm oil prices down to highly competitive levels. Simultaneously, a record soybean crop in the US also provided an abundant supply of soybean oil at lower costs, forcing rapeseed oil to adjust its premium downward to maintain competitiveness.
• Biofuel extraction demand cools slightly: In the EU, technical regulations and biofuel blending policies are entering the year-end review phase. Some refineries have temporarily reduced their raw rapeseed oil procurement capacity while awaiting new carbon target guidelines, causing industrial demand to stall in the short term.

3. Impact of global macroeconomic factors

Beyond internal agricultural industry factors, the macroeconomic picture of October 2026 plays a key role in shaping the flow of capital into rapeseed oil futures contracts:

• Monetary policy and the strength of the USD: The DXY index maintains its strength as major central banks remain cautious regarding the interest rate cut roadmap. The USD anchored at a high level increases import costs for rapeseed oil for major consuming nations using local currencies, such as China, India, or Southeast Asian countries. This indirectly suppresses the price growth of commodities denominated in USD.
• Fluctuations in crude oil energy prices: The correlation between vegetable oil and crude oil (WTI, Brent) continues to remain high due to the proportion of rapeseed oil used for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and Biodiesel production. In October 2026, international crude oil prices traded sideways around the 75 - 80 USD/barrel zone amid concerns over slowing global industrial consumption, weakening the support for rapeseed oil from the renewable energy sector.
• Logistics and shipping costs: Although shipping rates have stabilized compared to previous crises, transport routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal still maintain certain risk surcharges. High logistics costs have prevented rapeseed oil prices from falling deeper, acting as a solid technical support threshold at the 1,440 USD/ton mark.

4. Vietnamese market: Impacts and recommendations for businesses

For the Vietnamese market, the slight price adjustment and the accumulation status of rapeseed oil bring both opportunities and challenges for importers and food producers:

Short-term advantage for processing businesses: The converted import price equivalent to 37.25 million VND/ton is a relatively comfortable price range compared to past price spikes. Businesses producing mayonnaise, margarine, high-end frying oil, and confectionery have the opportunity to restructure input material costs before entering the peak production season for the 2027 Lunar New Year.

USD/VND exchange rate risk: Although international prices are stable around 1,440 USD/ton, exchange rate fluctuations between the USD and VND at the end of the year could erode the benefits of lower raw material prices. Businesses need to proactively use hedging tools (Forward, Swap) to safely lock in input costs.

Inventory management strategy: In a context where rapeseed oil prices have not shown clear signs of a breakout but are moving sideways, businesses should not over-accumulate through long-term forward contracts; instead, they should apply a back-to-back purchasing strategy and lock in a portion of Q1/2027 production volume when prices hit the 1,420 - 1,440 USD/ton support zone.

5. Forecast of rapeseed oil price trends in the final months of 2026

Looking toward the end of 2026, the rapeseed oil market is forecast to struggle to maintain its sideways status for too long as winter weather factors in Europe and North America begin to take effect. Two main scenarios have been set out by commodity analysis organizations:

• Base scenario (60% probability): Rapeseed oil prices continue to fluctuate and accumulate within the 1,420 - 1,480 USD/ton range. Selling pressure from the new harvest gradually exhausts, while increased food consumption during the year-end holiday season will keep prices from breaking below the 1,400 USD/ton threshold.
• Bullish scenario (40% probability): If geopolitical tensions affect sunflower oil supply from the Black Sea or global crude oil prices jump above the 85 USD/barrel mark due to regional conflicts, demand for substitute rapeseed oil will trigger a new rally, aiming to retest the old peak zone of 1,500 - 1,550 USD/ton.

In summary, October 2026 is a pivotal period helping the rapeseed oil market reshape its supply-demand correlation. With the current price of 1,440.00 USD/ton, the market is sending healthy signals to participants in the supply chain, opening up opportunities to optimize cash flow and prepare for the upcoming peak production and business cycle.