October 2026 Sugar Market Report: End-of-Month Correction Pressure and the Supply-Demand Balance

The global sugar market in October 2026 experienced volatile trading sessions, characterized by a fierce tug-of-war between new-crop supply pressure and persistent concerns over weather conditions. Following a breakout rally in the first half of the month, global raw sugar prices saw a clear correction in the final days of October, concluding a cycle marked by numerous variables for both the international and Vietnamese domestic markets.

Overview of Global Sugar Price Movements in October 2026

According to updated data from international commodity futures exchanges, the closing price of raw sugar on October 30, 2026, was recorded at 19.32 UScents/lb (equivalent to approximately 11,010,715 VND/ton). Although this price was nearly flat compared to the previous session (a slight uptick of +0.015%), the dominant trend in the final week of October was a gradual decline.

Looking back at the entire picture of October 2026, the market recorded fluctuations within a relatively wide range:

• 30-day price range: Fluctuated from 18.96 UScents/lb to 21.14 UScents/lb (equivalent to approximately 10,808,343 - 12,051,075 VND/ton).
• Average price for October 2026: Reached 20.25 UScents/lb (approximately 11,543,721 VND/ton). This level was significantly higher than the average price in September 2026 of 18.21 UScents/lb (approximately 10,380,798 VND/ton), representing a month-on-month increase of over 11%.
• Second-half correction: After maintaining levels above 20 UScents/lb throughout the mid-month period (reaching 20.47 UScents/lb on October 21, and hovering around 20.24 - 20.25 UScents/lb from October 23-25), sugar prices unexpectedly plunged to the 19.08 UScents/lb zone on October 26 before stabilizing around the 19.20 - 19.51 UScents/lb range in the final days of the month.

The decline from the monthly peak (above 21 UScents/lb) to the 19.32 UScents/lb level by month-end indicates profit-taking pressure from hedge funds, coupled with a certain improvement in short-term supply prospects.

The Vietnamese Sugar Market: Spillover Effects and Preparation for the 2026/2027 Crushing Season

In the domestic Vietnamese market, prices for white sugar (RS) and refined sugar (RE) in October 2026 generally maintained a relatively stable base but remained indirectly influenced by international trends. The converted global raw sugar price is currently at approximately 11 million VND/ton (excluding transportation, insurance, taxes, and processing costs). When these costs are added, domestic white sugar prices at major factories and distribution warehouses in the North and South are maintained within the 19,500 - 21,200 VND/kg range, depending on the type and origin.

The end of October also marks the time when sugarcane regions in the Central, Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta areas enter the preparation phase for the new 2026/2027 crushing season. The Vietnam Sugar and Sugarcane Association (VSSA) and factories are actively monitoring market developments to establish reasonable sugarcane procurement prices to encourage farmers to maintain sugarcane acreage, in a context where sugarcane must still compete fiercely with fruit trees and cassava.

Furthermore, the control of smuggled sugar across the Southwestern border and the strict enforcement of trade defense measures against HFCS liquid sugar and sugar originating from certain ASEAN countries continue to be important pillars preventing domestic sugar prices from being swept away by the deep declines of the international market.

Key Drivers of Sugar Price Volatility

The sharp price volatility in October, especially the cooling trend toward the end of the month, stemmed from a combination of several key global factors:

1. Favorable Weather Shifts in Brazil

Brazil – the world's largest sugar producer and exporter – was the focal point of this price correction. Previously, in August and September, prolonged drought and wildfires in the Center-South region pushed sugar prices above the 21 UScents/lb threshold due to concerns over declining sugarcane yields. However, entering the second half of October 2026, widespread rainfall returned to the region, helping to moisten the soil and improve growing conditions for sugarcane fields for subsequent harvest cycles. Concerns over supply shortages were immediately alleviated, triggering a wave of technical selling on the New York exchange.

2. Sugarcane Crushing Progress and Ethanol Conversion Rates

Reports from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) show that factories in the country are still maximizing the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production rather than ethanol, as sugar profit margins remain superior to those of biofuels. The allocation rate of sugarcane for sugar production remains at a historically high level (above 49%), ensuring a plentiful supply of physical sugar flowing into the global market in the final months of the year.

3. Crop Prospects in India and Thailand

India received relatively favorable monsoon rainfall in 2026, creating favorable conditions for sugarcane development in key states such as Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. The market has begun to see speculation that the Indian government may consider relaxing sugar export quota mechanisms in the new crop year if domestic production exceeds forecasts, creating further resistance to the upward momentum of sugar prices.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

Beyond being governed by the physical supply-demand balance, sugar prices in October 2026 were also deeply influenced by global macroeconomic variables:

• Strength of the USD (DXY): In October, the USD index remained high as investors adjusted their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut path. A stronger USD increases the cost of importing commodities priced in USD for major consuming countries like Indonesia or China, thereby dampening actual import demand.
• Brazilian Real (BRL) Exchange Rate: The weakening of the Real against the USD encouraged Brazilian sugar mills to increase sales to the international market to earn foreign currency, adding supply pressure to the futures market.
• Global Crude Oil Prices: The oil market in October fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions intertwined with concerns over slowing global economic growth. As crude oil prices cooled, retail gasoline prices fell, leading to a decrease in ethanol prices, indirectly encouraging sugar mills in Brazil and India to prioritize crushing sugarcane for sugar rather than bio-ethanol production.
• Logistics and Shipping Costs: Bulk shipping freight costs, after a period of rapid increases, have begun to stabilize, helping to ease tensions in the international sugar supply chain and facilitating smoother cargo flows from ports like Santos (Brazil) to the rest of the world.

Market Outlook and Recommendations for Businesses

Ending October 2026 in the 19.32 UScents/lb zone, the global sugar market has largely reflected positive news regarding weather in Brazil as well as crop prospects in South Asia. In the short term (November 2026), global sugar prices are likely to establish a new equilibrium zone within the 18.80 - 19.80 UScents/lb range. The 19.00 UScents/lb support level is considered a relatively solid psychological threshold as global production costs have increased significantly following the inflationary cycle.

For production and trading businesses in Vietnam:

• Industrial consumers (confectionery, beverages): The end-of-October price correction is a favorable opportunity to consider locking in purchase contracts for the peak production season serving the upcoming Lunar New Year, avoiding the risk of price volatility as the year-end approaches.
• Sugar processing plants: Need to carefully calculate the cost of raw sugarcane procurement for the 2026/2027 season, closely following international market indicators and developments in official sugar import supplies to optimize business efficiency.

In summary, October 2026 closed with the return of balance to the sugar market. Although the average price for the entire month remained high (20.25 UScents/lb), the downward correction toward the end of the month sent a clear signal that supply is gradually catching up with global consumption demand.