Soybean Oil Market in October 2026: Consolidating Near Peak Levels After Strong Rally

The global agricultural market in general, and the vegetable oil market in particular, recorded many notable shifts in October 2026. Following an impressive acceleration compared to the previous month, soybean oil prices trading on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are entering a phase of rebalancing and sideways movement in the final weeks of the month. The following article provides a comprehensive overview of the soybean oil market in Vietnam and globally from 01/10/2026 to 31/10/2026, while delving into supply-demand variables and the macroeconomic factors shaping current price levels.

1. Overview of Soybean Oil Price Movements in October 2026

As of the trading session on 25/10/2026, global soybean oil prices closed at 66.83 UScents/lb, equivalent to approximately 38,075,029 VND/ton (based on the reference exchange rate). Compared to the previous sessions (from 23/10 to 24/10), the fluctuation range remained nearly flat with a nominal slight increase of +0.059% (+0.04 UScents/lb, equivalent to a modest increase of about 22,789 VND/ton). The market is showing a state of sustainable accumulation after a series of fluctuations that lasted since the beginning of the month.

Looking back at the entire picture of October 2026, soybean oil prices have established a new floor significantly higher than the previous month:

• Average price in October 2026: Reached 67.64 UScents/lb (approximately 38,536,510 VND/ton), an increase of 8.62% compared to the September 2026 average of 62.27 UScents/lb (approximately 35,477,062 VND/ton).
• 30-day trading range: Fluctuated between 65.97 - 69.91 UScents/lb (equivalent to 37,585,062 - 39,829,796 VND/ton). After approaching the key psychological threshold of 70 UScents/lb in the middle of the month, profit-taking pressure pushed prices to correct toward the support zone of 65.97 UScents/lb on 21/10 before recovering and stabilizing around the 66.80 UScents/lb level.

In the Vietnamese market, due to heavy reliance on imported raw materials (soybeans for crushing and crude soybean oil imported from the US and South America), the offering prices for industrial and refined soybean oil at domestic ports (Cai Mep, Hai Phong) also maintained a high-anchored trend. The converted import price of around 38 million VND/ton has put pressure on the profit margins of food processing and animal feed production plants due to rising raw material costs throughout the past month.

2. Analysis of Factors Leading to Price Fluctuations During the Month

The breakout of the average price in October 2026 compared to September stemmed from a chain reaction of supply-demand factors, before facing technical adjustment pressure in the penultimate week of the month:

2.1. Booming Demand from the Renewable Energy Sector (Biofuels)

The main driver pushing the average price in October to 67.64 UScents/lb was the surge in soybean oil consumption for biofuel/renewable diesel production. Refineries in the US and Europe ramped up crushing and storage capacity for vegetable oils to meet mandatory year-end green quotas. This created a solid "price floor," draining a portion of crude oil exports intended for the conventional food segment.

2.2. US Harvest Progress and South American Planting Situation

October is the peak harvest time for soybeans in the US. Typically, new-crop supply pressure would push agricultural prices down. However, 2026 witnessed a "crushing paradox": demand for soybean meal slowed down, forcing soybean crushing complexes to rebalance their capacity, which inadvertently curbed the growth rate of available soybean oil supply.

Additionally, in Brazil – the world's leading soybean supplier – localized dry weather conditions during the early stages of the 2026/2027 planting season raised concerns that the harvest early next year could be delayed. This stimulated speculative capital to push soybean oil prices toward the 70 UScents/lb mark in the first half of October.

2.3. Resistance from the Palm Oil Market and Technical Profit-Taking

The reason prices could not sustainably break through the 70 UScents/lb threshold and cooled down to 66.83 UScents/lb by the end of the month was due to fierce competition from palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia. When the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened excessively, major importers in India and China quickly shifted orders to palm oil, creating pressure that forced commodity exchanges to cool down soybean oil prices.

3. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

Soybean oil prices do not only fluctuate according to traditional agricultural laws but also reflect global macroeconomic variables sensitively in the current period:

• Global Crude Oil Market: Soybean oil is increasingly closely linked to crude oil prices (WTI and Brent) through the biofuel value chain. In October 2026, the fact that international crude oil prices remained stable above 75 - 80 USD/barrel directly supported the prices of vegetable oils used as bio-blending feedstocks, preventing soybean oil prices from falling deeply.
• Monetary Policy and USD Strength: Interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the DXY index anchored at high levels caused financial costs for storing physical commodities to rise. For importing countries like Vietnam, a strong USD increases import costs in local currency, pushing converted prices above 38 million VND/ton even when world prices experience cooling sessions.
• Logistics and Shipping Costs: Tensions on several key maritime routes and rising seasonal international dry bulk freight rates in the fourth quarter added a significant surcharge to CIF prices at Vietnamese import ports. This explains why domestic price ranges do not immediately reflect the price drops on international exchanges.

4. Market Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

The sideways price state in the 23 - 25/10/2026 sessions at 66.83 UScents/lb signals that the market has found a new short-term equilibrium zone. The support threshold of 65.50 - 66.00 UScents/lb is forecast to be quite solid for the remainder of the fourth quarter of 2026.

For businesses importing and producing cooking oil and animal feed in Vietnam, this is a pivotal time to implement risk management strategies:

• Purchasing Strategy: Avoid massive bulk buying in anticipation of price hikes when the market has just experienced a strong rally since September. Businesses should maintain a partial purchasing strategy (dollar-cost averaging) during corrections toward the 66.00 UScents/lb support zone to serve production needs for the upcoming Tet holiday.
• Price Hedging Tools: Utilize futures and options contracts on interconnected commodity exchanges (via the Vietnam Mercantile Exchange - MXV) to lock in input costs, avoiding risks from exchange rate fluctuations and unexpected commodity price volatility if weather in South America takes a turn for the worse in November.

In summary, October 2026 marked a turning point in establishing a higher price floor for soybean oil. Businesses in the agricultural supply chain need to closely monitor planting progress in Brazil as well as crude oil price trends to make the most flexible and effective operational decisions.