Soybean Market in October 2026: Northern Hemisphere Harvest Pressure and Technical Bottom-Fishing Trends

The international agricultural market entered October 2026 with a focus on harvest progress in the Northern Hemisphere and early planting signals in South America. For soybeans, the dominant trend in October recorded a clear weakening compared to the previous month. Abundant new-crop supply pressure, combined with complex macroeconomic developments, pushed soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to fluctuate at their lowest levels in many months, directly impacting the import costs of raw materials for animal feed production in Vietnam.

Global and Domestic Soybean Price Developments in October 2026

As of the trading session on October 24, 2026, global soybean prices stood at 1,256.50 UScents/bu (equivalent to approximately 11,931,084 VND/ton), a slight decrease of 1.00 UScents/bu compared to the previous session (October 23 at 1,257.50 UScents/bu). Despite a slight recovery from the short-term low of 1,245.10 UScents/bu (on October 21), the overall price picture in October 2026 remained in a clear downward trend.

Looking at the overall picture for the entire month, the average price in October 2026 reached only 1,274.37 UScents/bu (approximately 12,100,768 VND/ton), a significant drop compared to the average price in September 2026 of 1,305.75 UScents/bu (approximately 12,398,737 VND/ton). Over the past 30 days, the soybean price range fluctuated between 1,245.10 UScents/bu and 1,320.00 UScents/bu (equivalent to 11,822,835 – 12,534,048 VND/ton). The continuous retreat from the peak of 1,320.00 UScents/bu at the beginning of the month to near the support level of 1,245 UScents/bu reflects the high level of caution among speculators and capital management funds.

In the Vietnamese market, the prices of imported soybean raw materials and soybean meal at major ports such as Cai Mep and Hai Phong Port also adjusted downward in line with the global trend. The offering price for imported soybeans for spot delivery at the end of October 2026 fluctuated around 12,200,000 – 12,500,000 VND/ton depending on packaging specifications and delivery terms, cooling down significantly compared to the price levels in the third quarter of 2026. The cooling of import costs has partially eased the burden of input costs for domestic livestock and poultry feed processing plants.

Analysis of Causes for Soybean Price Fluctuations in October

The decline in soybean prices in October 2026 stemmed from a combination of several key factors related to the agricultural supply-demand cycle:

• US Harvest Pressure Peaks: October is the peak harvest time for soybeans in the US agricultural belt (Midwest). Harvest progress proceeded favorably due to dry weather, with actual production flowing into warehouses and the Mississippi River logistics system at a very fast pace. Hedge selling pressure from US producers and exporters exerted downward pressure on CBOT futures prices.
• Favorable Weather Shifts in South America: Brazil and Argentina—the world's two leading soybean producers and exporters—have begun their 2026/2027 planting campaigns. Timely rains in Mato Grosso state and central Brazil in mid-October dispelled drought concerns, encouraging farmers to accelerate planting progress. The prospect of abundant supply from South America in the first half of next year continues to hinder price increase efforts.
• Cautious Buying Pace from China: As the world's largest soybean importer, China's demand for inventory replenishment in October showed signs of slowing. Oil crushing plants in this country remained cautious due to low crush margins, while closely monitoring trade policies and market developments before deciding to sign long-term contracts.

Impact of Global Macroeconomic Factors

Beyond pure supply-demand factors, the soybean market in October 2026 was also strongly influenced by the global financial and macroeconomic environment:

1. Volatility of the Dollar Index (DXY): The USD maintained relative strength in October, exerting downward pressure on most raw material commodities priced in this currency. A more expensive greenback increased the cost of soybean imports for consuming nations outside the US, indirectly narrowing consumer demand in the international market.

2. Energy Market and Biofuel Trends: Global crude oil prices in October fluctuated within a narrow range, directly impacting the soybean oil market—a key input for biodiesel production. The stagnation of energy prices reduced the attractiveness of converting agricultural products into renewable energy, leading to a decline in industrial oil-crushing demand for soybeans.

3. Shipping Costs and Supply Chains: Although dry bulk freight costs did not record major shocks, the optimization of inland waterway transport chains in the US during the harvest season helped ensure smooth cargo movement without serious port congestion. This factor helped reduce risk surcharges and storage fees, contributing to keeping transaction prices at low levels.

Impact on the Vietnamese Market and Recommendations for Businesses

Vietnam is currently one of the largest importers of soybeans and soybean meal in Southeast Asia to serve the animal feed and aquaculture production industries. The decline in global prices from an average of 1,305.75 UScents/bu last month to around 1,256.50 – 1,274.37 UScents/bu this month brings both opportunities and challenges:

• For Animal Feed Producers: The cooling of imported raw material prices is a positive signal to lower production costs and improve profit margins, which are currently being squeezed as domestic pork and poultry prices face significant competitive pressure.
• Inventory Risk Management: As prices are in a correction trend and testing technical support levels, trading and processing businesses need to be cautious about stockpiling large inventories in long-term futures contracts. Applying hedging tools on the commodity exchange is essential to lock in profit margins and prevent the risk of sudden price reversals if South American weather encounters issues in November and December.

Soybean Market Outlook for the End of 2026

Looking toward the end of 2026, the soybean market is likely to continue its accumulation and bottom-fishing process within the range of 1,230.00 – 1,280.00 UScents/bu. After the US harvest pressure gradually ends in early November, the focus of analysts will shift entirely to weather developments in South America. If climate phenomena (El Niño/La Niña) emerge and cause unusual drought in southern Brazil or central Argentina, they could trigger strong technical rebounds.

In summary, October 2026 marked a cyclical retreat for soybean prices under the pressure of the harvest season and cautious macroeconomic conditions. Domestic import-export and production businesses need to closely monitor planting progress in Brazil, USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations, and actual consumption demand to have the most flexible and effective purchasing strategy in the final quarter of the year.