Soybean Meal Market Report October 2026: Harvest Pressure and End-of-Month Cooling Trend

The global agricultural market in October 2026 recorded many notable fluctuations, particularly within the soybean complex. Following a period of strong growth that pushed price levels to their monthly peak, soybean meal prices entered a phase of correction and sideways consolidation toward the end of October. The report below summarizes the detailed movements of soybean meal prices in the global and Vietnamese markets from October 1, 2026, to October 31, 2026, while providing an in-depth analysis of supply-demand factors and macroeconomic impacts currently governing the animal feed market.

1. Overview of Soybean Meal Price Movements in October 2026

Closing the final trading week of October 2026, global soybean meal futures were recorded at 346.10 USD/ust (equivalent to approximately 9,859,171 VND/ton) on October 25, 2026. After significant volatility in previous sessions, the fluctuation range in recent days has narrowed considerably, with the market shifting to a relatively stable state with a slight change of only +0.058% compared to the previous session.

Looking at the overall picture for October 2026, soybean meal prices experienced two distinct halves:

• First half of October: Prices maintained the impressive upward momentum from late September, at one point touching a 30-day high of 371.00 USD/ust (approximately 10,568,485 VND/ton).
• Second half of October: The upward trend was halted as harvest pressure increased. Prices began to slide gradually from the 357.10 USD/ust threshold (October 16 - 18) down to 354.80 USD/ust (October 19), continuing to break through the 350 USD mark to reach 348.70 - 347.30 USD/ust (October 20 - 22) and anchoring steadily at the 346.10 USD/ust mark from October 23 to 25.
• Monthly average comparison: The average price for October 2026 reached 355.31 USD/ust (approximately 10,121,532 VND/ton), significantly higher than the average price of 324.64 USD/ust (approximately 9,247,851 VND/ton) in September 2026. Despite cooling off toward the end of the month, the general price level for October still increased by nearly 9.4% compared to the previous month.

2. The Soybean Meal Market Landscape in Vietnam

In the Vietnamese market – one of the largest soybean meal importers in Southeast Asia – global price movements have quickly impacted the spot market at domestic ports:

In the first half of October, offering prices for soybean meal delivered at Cai Mep, Phu My (South) and Hai Phong, Nghi Son (North) ports were continuously raised by trading companies to around 10,800 – 11,200 VND/kg for bulk cargo, due to concerns over delayed port arrivals and high logistics costs. However, entering the week of October 20 to October 31, 2026, as the global market adjusted to around the 346 – 348 USD/ust threshold, port offering prices gradually cooled to the 10,200 – 10,500 VND/kg range.

Regarding consumption demand, the fourth quarter of each year is the peak for the Vietnamese livestock industry to restock for the Lunar New Year food demand. Demand for industrial feed mixing for pigs and poultry remains high. Nevertheless, large animal feed processing plants have shown caution in signing long-term contracts for Q1 2027. The general sentiment among plants is to only cover immediate shortages (spot or short-term delivery for November - December 2026), taking advantage of the end-of-month price drop to optimize input material costs.

3. Fundamental Causes of Price Volatility

The reversal from the peak of 371.00 USD/ust to 346.10 USD/ust at the end of October stemmed from a combination of seasonal factors and physical supply-demand correlations:

Explosive Harvest Progress in the US (Northern Hemisphere Crop)

October is the peak harvest month for soybeans in the US Midwest belt. Crop progress reports showed that dry, favorable weather during the middle and end of October helped the harvesting speed accelerate significantly compared to the same period in previous years. Abundant soybean production quickly flowed to crushing plants and export ports in the Gulf of Mexico, relieving the thirst for spot goods and exerting direct downward pressure on the futures market.

Crush Margins and Abundant Meal Supply

Demand for soybean oil for the biofuel industry maintained attractive profitability, prompting crushing complexes in the US and the Americas to maintain maximum crushing capacity. This process inadvertently created a very large volume of soybean meal by-products flooding the market. As the supply of soybean meal increased faster than the absorption rate of the global livestock industry, prices were forced to adjust downward to stimulate demand.

Positive Planting Signals from the Southern Hemisphere

In South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, relief rains appearing from mid-October dispelled previous fears of prolonged drought. Brazilian farmers accelerated the planting progress for the 2026/2027 soybean crop with expectations of continuing to set new records for cultivated area. The prospect of abundant supply from South America early next year has curbed the bullish speculation of financial funds on the CBOT exchange.

4. Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts

Beyond the internal supply-demand factors of the agricultural sector, the soybean meal price picture in October 2026 was deeply influenced by the global economic context:

USD Strength and International Monetary Policy

The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained a strong state throughout October against the backdrop of major central banks remaining cautious with inflation control paths. A high USD makes the cost of importing agricultural materials in greenbacks for major importers (such as China, Southeast Asian nations, and the European Union) more expensive. This partially reduced large-scale purchasing power in the international market, creating resistance against the breakout momentum of commodity prices.

USD/VND Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Vietnamese Enterprises

For the domestic market, the pressure of the USD/VND exchange rate in October increased, creating a certain gap between domestic and global prices. Although CBOT soybean meal prices dropped by more than 20 USD/ust compared to the mid-month peak, import prices converted to VND still faced upward pressure from the bank exchange rate. Therefore, the reduction in wholesale prices in the Vietnamese market occurred more slowly and with a narrower margin compared to the decline on the international exchange.

Ocean Freight Costs and Logistics Supply Chains

International ocean logistics costs and domestic routes in October recorded some complex developments due to geopolitical tensions and changes in maritime routes. Although bulk shipping rates showed signs of cooling compared to the beginning of the year, fuel surcharges and storage costs remained at high levels, forming a rigid cost floor that prevented soybean meal prices from falling too deeply.

5. Trend Outlook and Recommendations for Enterprises

The end of October 2026 saw soybean meal prices find an equilibrium point in the 345.00 – 350.00 USD/ust range. This is a relatively solid technical support zone, reflecting that the price has largely accounted for the harvest pressure from the US crop.

In the short term (November 2026), the market may continue to consolidate sideways in a narrow range or see slight technical recoveries as importers take advantage of low prices to buy the dip. However, a strong breakout back to the 370 USD/ust peak is unlikely if planting weather in South America remains favorable.

Recommendations for enterprises:

• For animal feed production plants: The current price zone around 346 USD/ust (approximately 9.8 - 10.2 million VND/ton converted) is a good opportunity to lock in material contracts for production plans in November and December 2026. Enterprises should consider locking in 40% – 50% of Q4 demand to capitalize on this price correction.
• For trading units: It is necessary to closely follow weather forecast reports in Brazil and Argentina between now and the end of the year. At the same time, proactively use FX hedging tools to protect profit margins in a context where the international financial market still has many unpredictable variables.

In general, the soybean meal market in October 2026 provided signals of relief for animal feed cost pressures after the hot increase at the beginning of the month. The stabilization of material prices in the final weeks of the month is a favorable stepping stone for the domestic livestock industry to enter the peak production season at the end of the year.