Soybean Meal Market in July 2026: Stability during the transition period and notable macroeconomic variables

Entering the first days of July 2026, the global agricultural market in general and the soybean meal sector in particular are witnessing a relatively mild period of volatility, yet one that holds significant signals for the third quarter. Based on actual data from the beginning of the month, soybean meal prices are maintaining stability, creating a necessary lull for feed producers and investors following the sharp adjustments of the previous month.

Overview of soybean meal price movements in the first week of July 2026

According to the latest updated data as of July 3, 2026, global soybean meal prices are trading at 304.40 USD/ust, equivalent to approximately 8,821,441 VND/ton. Compared to the beginning of the week, this price level shows a clear sideways trend. Specifically, on July 1, the opening price was 304.70 USD/ust, after which it decreased slightly and remained stable at the 304.40 USD mark for two consecutive sessions on July 2 and July 3.

Looking at the broader monthly picture, the average price for July is currently anchored at 304.50 USD/ust, slightly lower than the average of the previous month (June 2026 was 306.15 USD/ust). This indicates that downward pressure remains latent, even though the fluctuation range over the past 30 days has been quite wide, from 299.80 USD to 313.00 USD/ust. The slight change of +0.1% in the most recent session (equivalent to +0.30 USD) reflects the cautious sentiment of traders as they enter the peak of the growing season in North America.

In the Vietnamese market, imported soybean meal prices also closely reflect the movements of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). With a converted price of approximately 8.82 million VND/ton (excluding VAT and domestic logistics costs), this is considered a manageable price level for livestock farmers and feed enterprises in the context of unpredictable fluctuations in the prices of other raw materials such as corn and wheat.

Analysis of the causes of price fluctuations in the current period

The stability of soybean meal prices in the first week of July is not coincidental but the result of the intersection of supply-demand factors and market sentiment. Below are the main reasons:

• Crop conditions in the US: July is an extremely critical period for soybeans in the US (the flowering and pod-setting stage). Crop Progress reports show that the percentage of crops rated "Good to Excellent" is stable due to evenly distributed rainfall in the Midwest states. This reduces concerns about supply risks, keeping prices from being pushed higher.
• Pressure from the South American harvest: Although Brazil and Argentina have finished their main harvest, the abundant inventory from these two "breadbaskets" is still being aggressively pushed into the international market. The price competition between the US and Brazil has implicitly created a strong resistance level, making it difficult for soybean meal prices to break above the 310 USD/ust threshold.
• Demand from China: The world's largest soybean importer is showing signs of a slowdown in spot purchasing. Oilseed crushers in China are facing low profit margins, leading them to buy only the necessary amount of goods instead of stockpiling heavily as they did during the same period last year.
• Waiting sentiment for the USDA report: Investors tend to remain on the sidelines, waiting for the upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This caution has led to lower trading volumes and prices fluctuating within a narrow range.

Macroeconomic influences on soybean meal prices in July 2026

In addition to direct factors from the agricultural sector, soybean meal prices are also deeply affected by global macroeconomic variables. These are the factors that determine the long-term trend of this commodity.

1. Strength of the USD and exchange rates

Soybean meal is denominated in USD; therefore, any change in the DXY (Dollar Index) directly impacts the actual value of this commodity. In the first week of July, the USD maintained stable strength as major central banks are still considering their interest rate paths. For Vietnam, the stable USD/VND exchange rate helps prevent imported prices from rising, providing positive support for domestic production costs.

2. Energy costs and global logistics

Global crude oil prices have a dual impact on soybean meal. First, soybean oil (a byproduct of crushing soybeans for meal) is a feedstock for biofuels; rising crude oil prices will pull soybean oil prices up, sometimes creating reverse pressure that forces soybean meal prices to adjust to balance the profit margins of crushing plants. Second, ocean freight costs (bulk shipping) in 2026 are being affected by new emission regulations and the geopolitical situation in vital straits. High shipping costs are usually added to the CIF price at Vietnamese ports such as Cai Mep or Phu My.

3. Trade policy and geopolitics

Potential trade conflicts or protectionist measures from major exporting nations are always a "sword of Damocles." In 2026, the trend toward sustainable agriculture and regulations on deforestation (such as Europe's EUDR) began to have a ripple effect, forcing suppliers to change their processes, thereby indirectly impacting production costs and product prices in the international market.

4. Inflation and food consumption

Consumer purchasing power for meat products (pork, chicken, beef) determines the final demand for soybean meal. If the global economy recovers well, increased protein demand will encourage the livestock industry to expand herds, thereby driving demand for soybean meal. Currently, economic recovery in Southeast Asia is a bright spot, keeping soybean meal consumption in this region at a high level.

Assessment and forecast for the Vietnamese market

In Vietnam, July is usually the time when businesses begin to prepare supplies for the end of the year. With the current price around the 8.8 million VND/ton threshold, this is considered a "golden" time for businesses to lock in forward contracts or increase their reserve inventory.

It is forecasted that in the following weeks of July 2026, soybean meal prices may see slight upward adjustments if there is unfavorable weather news in the US (such as prolonged heat or localized drought). However, with the supply pressure from South America still very high, the possibility of skyrocketing prices is very low. The expected fluctuation range will be between 300 - 315 USD/ust.

Advice for traders and livestock farmers:

• Closely monitor weather reports: Especially in the US states of Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska to predict supply fluctuations early.
• Take advantage of adjustments: When prices hit the support level of 300 USD/ust (approximately 8.7 million VND/ton), units should consider disbursing funds to purchase goods.
• Manage exchange rate risk: Use financial derivatives to protect import prices against unexpected fluctuations of the USD.

Conclusion

The soybean meal market for the week of July 1 - July 31, 2026, is showing a fairly stable and predictable face. The price of 304.40 USD/ust is a figure that accurately reflects the current supply-demand reality. Although there are no price "shocks," macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy and climate change still need to be closely observed. For the Vietnamese market, this is a favorable period to stabilize input costs, creating momentum for the growth of the livestock industry in the final months of 2026.

The information in this article is for reference and market analysis purposes. Investors and businesses should carefully consider their actual financial situation and business strategy.