Nickel Market in August 2026: Struggling around the $17,000 mark and the impact of the global green supply chain

The global non-ferrous metal market in August 2026 is witnessing dramatic developments, particularly for Nickel – a core component in the stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing industries. After a period of high volatility in the first half of the year, Nickel prices entered August with a clear tug-of-war between supply surplus pressure from Indonesia and expectations of demand recovery from major economies. This article summarizes the detailed Nickel price situation in Vietnam and globally, while providing an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic factors driving volatility from August 1, 2026, to August 31, 2026.

1. Overview of Nickel price movements in August 2026

As of mid-August, specifically on August 12, 2026, the Nickel price listed on the LME (London Metal Exchange) is holding at $16,890.00/mt, equivalent to approximately 441,757,950 VND/ton. Although this figure shows a slight recovery of 0.39% compared to the previous trading session, looking at the overall picture for August, we see a downward adjustment compared to the beginning of the month.

Below is a statistical table of Nickel price fluctuations in the first 10 days of August 2026:

• August 3, 2026: $17,210.00/mt (Highest level in the early part of the month).
• August 4, 2026: $17,150.00/mt.
• August 5, 2026: $17,140.00/mt.
• August 6, 2026: $16,720.00/mt (Bottom of the short-term adjustment cycle).
• August 10, 2026: $16,945.00/mt.
• August 12, 2026: $16,890.00/mt.

Looking at the average figures, the Nickel price this month is at $17,024.58/mt, higher than the previous month's average ($16,851.77/mt). This indicates that the long-term trend is still in a process of accumulation and gradual upward movement, despite the wide fluctuation range over the past 30 days, from $16,720.00 to $17,315.00/mt. In the Vietnamese market, this price level has created certain pressures on businesses importing raw materials for the metallurgy and electronic component manufacturing industries.

2. Analysis of the causes of price fluctuations in August

The volatility of Nickel prices over the past few weeks does not stem from a single factor but is the result of the intersection of technical factors and actual supply-demand realities.

Sudden decline in the first week of August

The drop in Nickel prices from $17,210 to $16,720 in just 3 days (from August 3 to August 6) was mainly due to a sharp increase in inventory reports at LME warehouses. In the context of Nickel production from Indonesia – the world's largest Nickel producer – continuing to remain high thanks to HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leach) projects entering stable operation, concerns about supply surplus led speculators to engage in short-term sell-offs.

Support from downstream demand

However, prices did not fall below the $16,700 level. The reason is bottom-fishing demand from EV battery manufacturers in China and Southeast Asia. August is typically the time when factories begin stocking up on raw materials for the year-end production cycle. The recovery to $16,890 on August 12 shows that the market is finding a new equilibrium point, where production costs (which are rising due to energy prices) are beginning to support the price floor for this metal.

3. Macroeconomic influences on global Nickel prices

To understand why Nickel has been fluctuating around the $17,000 mark in 2026, we need to look at the key macroeconomic variables currently dominating the global economy.

Monetary policy and the strength of the USD

In August 2026, major central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are in the final stages of a tightening cycle or beginning to ease slightly to support growth. Fluctuations in the DXY (USD Index) have a direct inverse impact on Nickel prices. As the USD has shown signs of slight weakness in a few recent trading sessions, Nickel prices denominated in USD become "cheaper" for investors holding other currencies, thereby boosting trading volume.

The green energy race and electric vehicles (EVs)

Nickel is an indispensable component in high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries (NCM type - Nickel Cobalt Manganese). By 2026, the roadmap for the transition to electric vehicles in Europe and the US has entered a strict implementation phase. Government subsidy policies for EVs using sustainably sourced materials have created a differentiation in Nickel prices. "Clean" Nickel (meeting ESG standards) often commands a higher premium, keeping the average price on the LME stable despite abundant supply from traditional mining sources.

Geopolitics and Indonesia's policy

Indonesia continues to be the "player" that determines the rules of the game in the Nickel market. The country's maintenance of a ban on raw ore exports and requirements for domestic refining have forced multinational corporations to invest heavily in industrial complexes there. However, any change in export taxes on intermediate Nickel products (such as Nickel matte or NPI) from the Indonesian government immediately creates waves of price volatility globally.

4. The Nickel market in Vietnam: Impact and adaptation

Vietnam, with its position as a nation with a strongly developing manufacturing industry and beginning to make its mark on the global EV production map, is directly affected by global Nickel price fluctuations.

On the import side: Stainless steel manufacturers in Vietnam are facing the challenge of fluctuating input material costs. With a price of approximately 441 million VND/ton, businesses need to have risk hedging strategies through futures contracts to avoid supply chain disruptions or losses due to sudden increases in raw material prices.

On the battery production side: Battery production complexes in Hai Phong and Ha Tinh are closely monitoring Class 1 Nickel prices. The fact that Nickel prices remained below $18,000/mt in August is a positive signal, helping to reduce pressure on battery production costs, thereby making domestic EV prices more competitive.

5. Outlook and forecast for the second half of August 2026

Based on actual data and macroeconomic analysis, the Nickel market in the remaining weeks of August 2026 is likely to continue its "accumulation within a narrow range" trend.

We forecast that Nickel prices will fluctuate between $16,800 - $17,200/mt. A strong breakout above the $18,000 mark is unlikely because LME inventory levels remain at safe levels. Conversely, the $16,500 support level appears very solid as the marginal extraction costs of many Nickel mines in Australia and New Caledonia have approached this level, causing supply to automatically tighten if prices fall further.

Advice for investors and businesses:

• For consuming businesses: Take advantage of adjustments to the $16,700 - $16,800 range to lock in purchase contracts for the fourth quarter of 2026.
• For financial investors: Closely observe reports on China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in August, as this is the main driver determining global stainless steel consumption demand.

Conclusion

The Nickel price of $16,890.00/mt on August 12, 2026, reflects a fragile equilibrium in the global metal market. In the context of the 2026 macroeconomic environment, which still contains many variables regarding geopolitics and the pace of energy transition, Nickel will remain a highly volatile commodity but will offer many opportunities for those who grasp the pulse of the market. Closely monitoring LME inventory reports and policies from Indonesia will be the key to effective risk management during this period.

We hope this summary and assessment of the Nickel market in August 2026 has provided readers with deep and useful insights for their business and investment decisions.