Nickel Market in July 2026: Analysis of Stability Trends and Key Macroeconomic Impacts

Entering the third quarter of 2026, the global non-ferrous metal market, and the nickel market in particular, is witnessing unexpected developments. Following a period of high volatility in the first half of the year, July 2026 marks a phase that economists call "stability in the low-price zone." This article will delve into the analysis of nickel prices during the week from 01/07/2026 to 31/07/2026, updating prices in Vietnam and the world, while dissecting the macroeconomic causes shaping the flow of this "white gold" material.

1. Overview of Global and Vietnamese Nickel Prices in July 2026

According to the latest updated data as of 12/07/2026, the price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is maintaining a level of 16,655.00 USD/mt. This figure indicates a slight recovery effort after hitting a bottom in the first week of the month.

In the Vietnamese market, this price is equivalent to approximately 437,505,199 VND/ton (converted at the current exchange rate). Compared to the previous trading session, the nickel price recorded a slight increase of 0.3%, corresponding to an increase of 50.00 USD (approximately 1,313,435 VND) per ton. Despite the short-term growth, looking at the overall picture for the entire month, we see a fairly clear downward adjustment compared to the previous month.

• Average price for July 2026 (to date): 16,460.83 USD/mt (approximately 432,404,605 VND/ton).
• Average price for June 2026: 17,759.73 USD/mt (approximately 466,525,019 VND/ton).
• Fluctuation range over the past 30 days: From 16,275.00 USD to 18,085.00 USD/mt.

Data shows that the nickel price has decreased by more than 1,300 USD/mt compared to the June average. This suggests that sell-off pressure or a decline in consumption demand occurred strongly before the market found a new equilibrium point around the 16,600 USD mark in mid-July.

2. Daily Price Movements During the Key Period

Observing the price chart from the beginning of July to 12/07/2026, we can see a slow but persistent recovery path:

• First week of the month (01/07 - 07/07): Nickel prices were under heavy pressure, falling from over 17,000 USD to the monthly low of 16,275.00 USD on 07/07. This was the time of most pessimistic market sentiment due to reports of high inventory levels at LME warehouses.
• Recovery phase (08/07 - 12/07): The market began to show signs of improvement. Prices gradually edged up from 16,420 USD to 16,605 USD and remained stable at 16,655 USD for three consecutive days (from 10/07 to 12/07).

This stability in recent days suggests that investors are pausing to observe further macroeconomic signals, rather than continuing to push prices lower.

3. Analysis of Causes for Nickel Price Fluctuations

Why did nickel prices drop sharply compared to June but are trending sideways in mid-July? There are three main groups of causes to consider:

First: The Supply Boom from Indonesia

By 2026, nickel mining and processing projects in Indonesia (especially through HPAL - High-Pressure Acid Leaching technology) have reached maturity. Indonesia's continuous increase in Class 1 nickel production (used for electric vehicle batteries) has dispelled the supply shortage fears that existed from 2022-2024. Global supply surplus is the prerequisite factor pulling the average July price significantly lower than the same period in previous years.

Second: The Shift in Electric Vehicle (EV) Battery Technology

Another important factor affecting nickel demand is the increasing popularity of LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries – a type of battery that does not use nickel or cobalt. In 2026, many major EV manufacturers shifted toward LFP batteries for mass-market vehicle lines to reduce costs. This reduces demand pressure on nickel, which was previously considered an irreplaceable component in high-performance NCM (Nickel-Cobalt-Manganese) batteries.

Third: Stainless Steel Production Situation in China

The stainless steel industry accounts for more than 60% of total global nickel consumption. In the first half of July 2026, steel mills in China maintained moderate production levels because domestic consumption in the real estate sector has not fully recovered. The lack of large orders from the construction industry has made it difficult for nickel prices to break out strongly.

4. Macroeconomic Influences on Nickel Prices During This Period

Nickel prices do not only fluctuate based on physical supply and demand but are also deeply affected by global macroeconomic variables.

Monetary Policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)

As of July 2026, the market is expecting another interest rate cut from the Fed. When interest rates fall, the USD usually tends to weaken. Since nickel is priced in USD on the international exchange, a weak USD makes nickel cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby stimulating buying power. This is the reason why nickel prices have seen a slight recovery of 0.3% in recent sessions as US inflation data was more favorable than forecast.

Green Economic Growth and ESG Regulations

In 2026, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulations have become stricter than ever. Steel and battery manufacturers in Europe have begun applying "carbon taxes" on input materials. Nickel produced with low-emission processes (Low-carbon Nickel) has started to command a higher premium compared to conventional nickel. This creates a differentiation in the LME price list, causing the average price to be influenced by changes in the composition of traded products.

Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chains

Although shipping routes have stabilized compared to the 2024 period, logistics costs in 2026 remain high due to volatile energy prices. Any minor disruption at major seaports in Southeast Asia can immediately cause nickel prices in consumer markets like Vietnam to skyrocket due to increased transportation and insurance costs.

5. Impact on the Vietnamese Market

Vietnam, as a country with a strongly developing stainless steel manufacturing industry and beginning to participate in the EV battery supply chain, is directly affected by global nickel price fluctuations.

With prices around the 437 million VND/ton threshold, domestic stainless steel manufacturers have the opportunity to stockpile raw materials at lower costs compared to the previous month (which was at 466 million VND/ton). This helps reduce input costs, thereby potentially lowering the cost of finished stainless steel products, stimulating domestic consumption, and increasing competitiveness for exports.

However, the stability of nickel prices also poses challenges for domestic mineral mining units. Low prices can reduce profit margins for operating nickel mines, forcing them to optimize operational processes to maintain economic efficiency.

6. Assessment and Forecast for the Second Half of July 2026

Based on actual data and macroeconomic analysis, we provide some assessments on the nickel price trend in the coming weeks of July:

• Main trend: Stability and accumulation. Nickel prices are unlikely to fall deep below the 16,000 USD/mt mark as this is a strong psychological support level and also the production cost level for many high-cost mines.
• Breakout potential: The market needs a boost from China. If the Chinese government launches new economic stimulus packages for the infrastructure sector in late July, nickel prices could return to the 17,000 - 17,500 USD/mt range.
• Advice for investors and businesses: This is an appropriate time for nickel-consuming businesses to execute forward purchase contracts or lock in prices for the fourth quarter of 2026, to take advantage of the period when prices are adjusting to a reasonable range.

Conclusion: The nickel market in the week from 01/07 to 31/07/2026 is reflecting a "resting" state after large waves. The current price of 16,655 USD/mt is the result of a tug-of-war between abundant supply and hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy. For Vietnamese businesses, closely monitoring daily price movements and macroeconomic indicators will be the key to making accurate business decisions during this volatile period.

We hope our summary and assessment of the nickel market in July 2026 have provided our readers with a comprehensive and useful perspective. Please continue to follow our subsequent newsletters to update the latest changes from the global metal market.