October 2026 Gold Market: Correction Pressure Toward the $3,875/oz Mark and Global Macroeconomic Impacts

October 2026 closed with unexpected developments in the international precious metals market as well as in Vietnam. Following a period of rapid growth and consecutive record highs in the previous quarter, world gold prices entered a relatively deep correction, reflecting shifts in interest rate expectations and macroeconomic rebalancing signals. Ending the trading session on October 31, 2026, spot gold prices anchored at $3,875.80/toz (equivalent to approximately 120,625,163 VND/tael), marking a return to stability after a series of sharp declines in the final week of the month.

Overview of the Global Gold Market in October 2026: Accumulation Phase After the Peak

The gold market in October recorded a wide trading range, moving between $3,875.80 and $4,194.15/toz (converting to approximately 120.62 - 130.53 million VND/tael). The most notable highlight in the overall picture is that the average price for October 2026 reached $4,100.62/toz (approximately 127.62 million VND/tael), significantly lower than the average of $4,333.23/toz (approximately 134.86 million VND/tael) recorded in September 2026. The average decline of over $230/toz between the two months indicates that the market is undergoing a strong repricing phase.

Notably, in the final trading days of the month, technical selling pressure increased sharply:

• From $4,057.90/toz on October 27, gold prices quickly retreated past the psychological support level of $4,000/toz.
• By October 29, the precious metal stood at only $4,013.40/toz before plunging to the monthly low of $3,875.80/toz on October 30.
• At the close of the session on October 31, 2026, the market entered a stable sideways state with a slight increase of +$2.00 (+0.05%), keeping the month-end gold price right near the bottom of the past 30-day cycle.

Domestic Gold Market: Cooling Down Following International Trends

In Vietnam, the prices of 9999 gold bars and rings in October 2026 were directly and rapidly affected by the weakening global trend. The converted price at the end of the month fell to around the 120.62 million VND/tael threshold, a significant decrease compared to the peak price zone of over 130 million VND/tael established in the first weeks of the month, as well as the previous month's average of 134.86 million VND/tael.

The rapid decline in gold prices during the final days of October created mixed sentiment in the domestic market:

• Short-term investors: Faced pressure to cut losses or take early profits as prices slipped below key support levels, leading to a localized increase in selling liquidity at several major gold retailers.
• Accumulation buyers: Began observing market movements more closely. As gold prices retreated to the 120 million VND/tael threshold, long-term accumulation demand showed signs of re-emerging, although cautious sentiment still prevailed due to fears that the downward trend might continue into early November.
• Spread margin: The gap between domestic gold prices and converted world prices was maintained at a moderate level, thanks to proactive and flexible regulation by the State Bank to limit speculation and stabilize exchange rates.

Causes of the Downward Price Volatility in October

The decline from the monthly peak of $4,194.15 to the low of $3,875.80 stemmed from a chain reaction in the global financial market:

1. Broad-based profit-taking: After a series of consecutive monthly gains that pushed gold prices to a record average of over $4,330/toz in September, hedge funds and large financial institutions restructured their portfolios as they entered the final phase of the year. Large-scale profit-taking triggered automated stop-loss orders when prices broke the $4,000/toz support level during the October 29-30 sessions.

2. US Dollar recovery: The US Dollar Index (DXY) recorded a rebound in the second half of October. The recovery of the greenback made the precious metal—which is priced in USD—more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby reducing new buying demand in the international market.

3. Short-term risk-off sentiment: Although geopolitical tensions in some regions have not completely ended, multilateral diplomatic efforts during this period helped cool expectations of widespread war. As geopolitical concerns temporarily subsided, capital flows tended to shift from safe-haven assets like gold to other profitable channels such as stocks and bonds.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Gold Prices

To shape the next move for gold prices following the correction in late October, examining fundamental macroeconomic factors is essential:

US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy: During the autumn of 2026, US economic data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the labor market showed that the economy maintained a certain level of resilience. This raised the possibility that the Fed would maintain a slow monetary easing path, rather than the aggressive interest rate cuts the market previously expected. Real interest rates remaining at high levels are a direct disadvantage for a non-yielding asset like gold.

10-year US Treasury yields: Long-term US Treasury yields tended to edge higher in October, creating fierce competition for safe-haven investment capital. Large capital flows shifting to bonds to lock in attractive yields weakened the buying power of gold ETFs in the final week of the month.

Support from Central Banks: Despite the decline in gold prices in October, the trend of de-dollarization and the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves by emerging economies, especially China, India, and Middle Eastern nations, remain a solid foundation for the precious metal in the long term. Strategic buying from central banks usually emerges strongly when gold prices fall to attractive valuation zones, preventing the risk of a deep collapse for the metal.

Trend Outlook and Investment Recommendations

The fact that gold closed on October 31, 2026, at $3,875.80/toz and maintained very narrow volatility (+0.05%) shows that the market is attempting to form a short-term bottom after having discounted most of the negative news during the week.

Upcoming market scenarios:

• Accumulation and recovery scenario: The $3,850 - $3,870/toz threshold will act as a key support zone. If this level holds, gold prices could see a technical rebound toward the $3,950 - $4,020/toz zone in the first weeks of November, creating conditions for domestic gold prices to retest the 123 - 125 million VND/tael zone.
• Extended correction scenario: If selling pressure continues to break through the $3,850/toz threshold under the impact of US employment reports exceeding expectations, the market could face a further drop toward the $3,780/toz mark.

Recommendations for investors:

For individual investors in Vietnam, the current price zone around 120 million VND/tael is one where speculative pressure has been significantly relieved compared to the previous month's peak of 134 million VND/tael. However, instead of using high leverage or committing all capital in a single disbursement, the optimal strategy at this time is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). At the same time, investors need to closely monitor policy-oriented messages from the Fed and leading economic indicators in November to make timely and safe portfolio restructuring decisions.