Zinc Market in November 2026: Anchored at High Levels as Supply Remains a Major Question Mark

Welcome to our monthly non-ferrous metal market outlook. In this article, we will delve into the performance of zinc prices during the period from November 1, 2026, to November 30, 2026. Based on actual data as of the beginning of November, the zinc market is showing a fairly solid front, continuing the recovery trend from the previous month and remaining anchored at relatively high price levels compared to the preceding period.

Zinc price volatility not only affects mining and smelting enterprises but also directly impacts key downstream industries such as galvanized steel production (serving construction and automotive sectors), alloy production, batteries, and chemicals. Therefore, understanding the factors driving the market is essential for all stakeholders.

Overview of Recent Zinc Price Performance

Before proceeding to a detailed analysis, let us review the key statistics to gain an overview of the price situation. Data is calculated based on an estimated exchange rate of approximately 25,803 VND/USD.

• Current price (as of November 1, 2026): 3,837.60 USD/tonne (equivalent to approximately 99,023,512 VND/tonne).
• Short-term trend: Stable.
• Change from the previous day: +0% (unchanged).
• Current month average price (newly started): 3,837.60 USD/tonne (~99,023,512 VND/tonne).
• Previous month average price (October 2026): 3,768.03 USD/tonne (~97,228,362 VND/tonne).
• Price range in the last 30 days: 3,676.90 - 3,878.70 USD/tonne (~94,876,889 - 100,084,035 VND/tonne).

Thus, looking at the figures above, we can see a clear trend: Zinc prices are anchored at high levels and show signs of slight growth compared to the previous month's average. Although in the short term (as of November 1), the price remains stable, the fluctuation range over the past 30 days shows that the market has at times touched very high thresholds, near 3,880 USD/tonne, before adjusting slightly to the current level.

Analysis of Factors Causing Zinc Price Volatility

The combination of fundamental supply-demand factors and macroeconomic financial elements is the key to explaining current zinc price movements. Below are the main causes:

1. Concerns Over Concentrated Ore Supply Persist

This can be considered the most important factor supporting zinc prices throughout the recent period and continuing to exert a strong influence in November 2026. Global zinc ore concentrate supply is facing many challenges:

• Production decline at major mines: Several large zinc mines worldwide have reached the end of their life cycles, leading to a natural decline in output. The lack of new large-scale mining projects coming online to compensate for this decline has created a tightening in the supply of raw materials for smelters.
• Rising mining costs: Global inflation, while somewhat contained, has left a legacy of high energy, labor, and mining supply costs. This forces mining companies to maintain high selling prices for ore concentrate to ensure profit margins, indirectly pushing up the price of finished zinc.
• Geopolitical and regulatory risks: In some countries with large zinc reserves, changes in stricter environmental regulations or political instability have disrupted mining operations or increased compliance costs, negatively affecting supply.

2. Energy Cost Pressure on Smelters

The zinc smelting process is extremely energy-intensive (especially electricity). Therefore, fluctuations in energy prices have a direct and strong impact on the production cost of refined zinc.

Although the most severe global energy crisis has passed, electricity price levels in many key zinc-producing regions (such as Europe and parts of Asia) remain higher than historical averages. This creates a high "cost floor" for smelters, making it impossible for them to lower product prices significantly even when demand weakens.

3. Weak and Uneven Demand Recovery

On the demand side, the market picture is mixed, but generally characterized by slow and uneven recovery across regions, which prevents zinc prices from breaking out more strongly.

• China - The engine has not truly accelerated: As the world's largest zinc consumer, the health of the Chinese economy is decisive. Although the Chinese government has launched many economic stimulus packages, particularly targeting infrastructure and real estate, the spillover effect on actual demand for galvanized steel products still needs time to manifest clearly. The slow recovery of China's real estate market is a major barrier to the upward momentum of zinc prices.
• Europe and North America - Modest growth: In developed economies, industrial production and construction activities are recovering but at a quite modest pace due to the lingering effects of high interest rates and investor caution. Demand from the automotive industry (a major zinc customer) is also undergoing a period of transition and uneven recovery.

4. Impact of Psychological Factors and Speculation

The metal market is always influenced by investor sentiment and speculative activities. The wide price range over the past 30 days (from approximately 3,677 to 3,879 USD/tonne) shows that the market is quite sensitive to new information.

When there is news of an incident at a major mine or positive economic data from China, investors may quickly push prices up due to fears of supply shortages (FOMO sentiment). Conversely, when macroeconomic data falls short of expectations, prices can adjust downward rapidly. This volatility reflects a market in a fragile state of equilibrium, where both buyers and sellers are cautiously probing the trend.

Macroeconomic Impacts on Zinc Prices in November 2026

Beyond the internal factors of the zinc market, global macroeconomic variables play an important role in shaping price trends this November.

1. Monetary Policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Strength of the USD

This is the most important macroeconomic factor affecting the price of all commodities priced in USD, including zinc. The relationship between zinc prices and the strength of the USD is usually inverse.

• Weakening USD scenario: If the Fed begins or continues a path of interest rate cuts due to contained inflation and concerns about economic growth, the USD tends to weaken against other major currencies. This makes zinc (and other metals) cheaper for buyers using other currencies, thereby stimulating demand and pushing prices up.
• Strengthening USD scenario: Conversely, if the Fed maintains high interest rates or even raises them due to persistent inflation, the USD will strengthen. This increases the cost of purchasing zinc for other countries, putting downward pressure on the metal.

As of November 2026, the market is expecting a gradual interest rate cut scenario from the Fed, which is providing a certain level of support for zinc prices, helping them remain at high levels.

2. Global Economic Growth Outlook

Zinc prices, as an industrial metal, are a "barometer" of the health of the global economy. The more optimistic the economic growth outlook, the greater the demand for industrial and construction products, thereby boosting demand and zinc prices.

Reports from international organizations such as the IMF or the World Bank on the global economic outlook for 2027 and subsequent years will be closely monitored by investors. If the outlook improves, it will strengthen confidence in the recovery momentum of zinc demand in the medium and long term, supporting current prices.

3. Economic Stimulus Packages and Fiscal Policy

Particularly important are policies from China. Any new announcements regarding stronger fiscal stimulus measures, focusing on infrastructure, renewable energy (zinc is used in solar panels and wind turbines), or support for the real estate market, could create a major boost for zinc prices.

In addition, policies promoting green transition in Europe and the US are also a long-term supporting factor for zinc demand, although the short-term impact in November may not be very pronounced.

Conclusion and Trend Outlook

In summary, the zinc market in November 2026 is in a phase of anchored high prices, firmly supported by concerns over ore concentrate supply and production costs, while growth momentum is limited by the slow recovery of global demand.

The current price level around 3,837 USD/tonne (nearly 99 million VND/tonne) reflects this fragile balance. The "stable" trend in the short term shows that the market is waiting for clearer signals.

Forecast for the coming period: We believe that zinc prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a wide range (approximately 3,700 - 3,900 USD/tonne) this November. A strong breakout above the 3,900 USD/tonne threshold will require truly positive news regarding demand from China or an unexpected supply drop. Conversely, if global macroeconomic data worsens significantly or the USD strengthens unexpectedly, prices could adjust toward the 3,700 USD/tonne zone.

For Vietnamese enterprises, closely monitoring world price developments and the USD/VND exchange rate is extremely important to make appropriate raw material procurement decisions and hedge against price risks. The current high price anchor requires businesses to optimize production processes and manage inventory effectively to maintain competitiveness.