Zinc Market in June 2026: Analysis of Correction Pressures and Notable Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The global non-ferrous metals market, particularly Zinc, is experiencing volatile trading weeks in June 2026. Following a period of steady growth at the beginning of the year, zinc prices are currently facing strong correction pressures from both internal supply-demand factors and complex macroeconomic impacts from the global economy. This article provides a detailed summary of zinc price developments in Vietnam and globally, analyzes the causes of the recent decline, and offers insights into market trends for the coming period.

1. Overview of Zinc Price Developments in June 2026

Based on actual data from market databases, zinc prices in the first half of June 2026 are recording a clear downward trend after reaching a short-term peak at the beginning of the month. This is a signal that the market is entering a phase of resetting to a new price floor following previous excessive expectations.

As of June 11, 2026, zinc was trading at 3,450.20 USD/mt, equivalent to approximately 90,843,766 VND/ton. Although the price saw a slight recovery in the most recent session with an increase of +0.91% (equivalent to +31.50 USD/mt), looking at the overall picture since the beginning of the month, we see a significant decline.

Daily Price Fluctuation Details (June 01 - June 11, 2026):

• June 02, 2026: 3,640.90 USD/mt (Highest level of the month).
• June 03, 2026: 3,592.60 USD/mt (Start of the downward trend).
• June 04, 2026: 3,587.30 USD/mt.
• June 05 - June 07, 2026: 3,526.20 USD/mt (Temporary sideways phase).
• June 08, 2026: 3,537.20 USD/mt.
• June 09, 2026: 3,544.10 USD/mt.
• June 10, 2026: 3,481.70 USD/mt (Lost the 3,500 USD mark).
• June 11, 2026: 3,450.20 USD/mt.

Compared to the previous month's average price (3,487.66 USD/mt), the current price is still hovering around this value axis; however, the decline from the peak of 3,640.90 USD to 3,450.20 USD (a drop of nearly 200 USD/mt in just 10 days) shows that a cautious sentiment is prevailing in the market. The fluctuation range over the past 30 days has been quite large, from 3,450.20 to 3,640.90 USD/mt, reflecting the sensitivity of this commodity to economic news.

2. Analysis of Causes for Zinc Price Fluctuations

The decline in zinc prices during the first and second weeks of June is not coincidental. There are three main groups of causes leading to this phenomenon:

First: Recovery of Zinc Ore Supply

After a long period of tightening due to major mines in Australia and Europe suspending operations for maintenance or due to high energy costs, the supply of zinc concentrate has begun to show signs of improvement. Smelters in China and South Korea have increased procurement and processing, leading to an increase in zinc ingot inventories on major exchanges such as the LME (London Metal Exchange). As concerns over supply shortages ease, zinc prices naturally lose their momentum for rapid growth.

Second: Weak Consumption Demand from the Construction and Infrastructure Sectors

Zinc is primarily used in the steel galvanizing process to prevent corrosion. Therefore, the health of the steel and construction industries has a direct impact on zinc prices. In June 2026, reports from China—the world's largest zinc consumer—showed that civil construction activity has not yet flourished as expected. Although the government has introduced many stimulus packages, the caution of real estate investors has caused demand for galvanized steel to fall, subsequently dragging down the demand for zinc ingots.

Third: Profit-Taking Pressure from Financial Investors

After zinc prices crossed the 3,600 USD/mt threshold at the beginning of June, many investment funds implemented profit-taking strategies. Technical selling when prices hit strong resistance levels accelerated the rate of decline, creating a domino effect on the exchange. The slight 0.91% increase on June 11 can only be viewed as a "technical rebound" after a series of deep declines, not enough to confirm a return to an upward trend.

3. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Zinc Market

Zinc prices do not operate solely according to supply and demand laws but are also deeply influenced by the global macroeconomic picture. In the context of June 2026, the following factors are playing a key role:

Monetary Policy and the Strength of the USD

The USD is always the "guiding star" for commodity prices. During this period, inflation reports from the US remain higher than the target, causing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its stance on high interest rates. As the USD strengthens, zinc prices (which are denominated in USD) become more expensive for investors using other currencies, thereby reducing buying demand. This inverse correlation has been clearly demonstrated in the recent zinc price decline.

Geopolitical Situation and Energy Costs

Although energy prices in Europe have stabilized compared to the 2022-2023 crisis period, electricity costs remain a major variable for zinc smelters. Any escalation in geopolitical conflict in energy-supplying regions could push electricity prices higher, forcing smelters to cut production. However, at present, this factor is temporarily subsiding, contributing to the maintenance of stable supply and exerting downward pressure on prices.

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

The manufacturing PMI in major economies such as the EU, the US, and China in May and early June shows divergence. While the service sector is growing well, the heavy manufacturing sector is showing signs of stagnation. This reduces expectations for a super-growth cycle for industrial metals in the short term.

4. Zinc Market in Vietnam: Challenges for Domestic Enterprises

In Vietnam, fluctuations in global zinc prices have an immediate impact on the cost of goods sold for manufacturers of galvanized steel sheets, steel wire, and automotive and motorcycle parts. With a converted price of approximately 90.8 million VND/ton (excluding taxes, fees, and shipping costs), this is still a relatively high price compared to the same period in previous years.

Exchange Rate Pressure: One of the biggest difficulties for zinc importers in Vietnam today is the USD/VND exchange rate. Although global zinc prices have fallen slightly, if the domestic exchange rate rises, the actual import price calculated in VND does not decrease significantly. This forces businesses to have strategies for exchange rate risk management and scientific inventory management.

Domestic Consumption Market: The domestic construction industry in the second quarter of 2026 is showing signs of recovery thanks to key public investment and infrastructure projects. However, purchasing power from the civil sector remains weak. Therefore, the decline in zinc prices could be "good news" that helps ease the burden of input costs for galvanized steel manufacturers, giving them room to adjust selling prices and stimulate market demand.

5. Outlook and Trend Forecast for Late June 2026

Looking toward the second half of June 2026, the zinc market is expected to continue its "search for an equilibrium point." The possibility of zinc prices returning to the 3,600 USD/mt mark immediately is quite low without positive shocks from Chinese demand or a sudden policy pivot from the Fed.

Optimistic Scenario: If US economic data weakens, causing the USD to depreciate, zinc could recover to the 3,500 - 3,550 USD/mt range. The current support level at 3,450 USD/mt is considered quite solid.

Cautious Scenario: In the event that LME inventories continue to rise and Chinese economic indicators disappoint, zinc prices could retest the 3,350 - 3,400 USD/mt range. This would be an opportunity for manufacturing enterprises to purchase and stock up for year-end production plans.

Conclusion

The zinc market in June 2026 is a true reflection of the complex developments in the global economy. The decline in zinc prices from the 3,640 USD peak to the 3,450 USD range is a necessary correction after a period of rapid growth. For Vietnamese enterprises, closely monitoring daily price movements and macroeconomic indicators is extremely important for making sound business decisions. In a volatile market, flexibility and forecasting ability will be the keys to maintaining a competitive advantage.

Note: The above analyses are for reference purposes based on market data at the time of writing. Investors and businesses should consider carefully before making financial decisions.