Zinc Market in July 2026: Supply Pressures and Macroeconomic Recovery Momentum

Entering the third quarter of 2026, the global non-ferrous metals market, particularly zinc, is witnessing intriguing developments. Following a period of high volatility in the first half of the year, zinc prices in the first weeks of July 2026 have begun to establish a new price floor, reflecting a delicate balance between supply-demand factors and major shifts in the global macroeconomy. This article provides an in-depth analysis of zinc price trends in Vietnam and globally from July 1, 2026, to July 31, 2026, based on actual data and the current economic context.

1. Market Overview and Zinc Price Developments in July 2026

In the first half of July 2026, the zinc market recorded a state of stability with a slight upward trend. Based on the latest updated data, as of July 11, 2026, global zinc prices are listed at 3,614.30 USD/mt. When converted for the Vietnamese market, this price is equivalent to approximately 95,038,019 VND/ton.

Compared to the end of June, zinc prices have seen significant improvement. Specifically, the current monthly average price (as of July 11) reached 3,562.37 USD/mt, higher than the previous month's average of 3,545.75 USD/mt. This difference, while only +14.70 USD (+0.41%), is significant, indicating that market sentiment is gradually becoming more optimistic following deep corrections.

Looking at the price chart for the last 30 days, we see a fairly wide fluctuation range, from 3,418.30 USD to 3,640.80 USD/mt. This shows that the market is far from quiet, with a fierce tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the face of conflicting economic information.

2. Detailed Analysis of Price Fluctuations by Period

To better understand the market momentum in July 2026, let's review the price developments in the first 10 days of the month:

• Initial Phase (July 01 - July 02): The market began the new month with a downward correction. On July 02, zinc prices hit a recent low of 3,486.30 USD/mt. This was considered a consequence of profit-taking by investors following the late-June rally.
• Recovery Phase (July 03 - July 05): Zinc prices quickly regained upward momentum and traded sideways at 3,549.60 USD/mt for three days. This stability laid the groundwork for a new breakout.
• High Volatility Phase (July 06 - July 09): This was a vibrant work week. Zinc prices jumped to 3,583.20 USD on July 06, then corrected slightly before unexpectedly reaching a short-term peak on July 09 at 3,629.00 USD/mt.
• Stabilization Phase (July 10 - July 11): Over the last two days, zinc prices remained stable at 3,614.30 USD/mt. This price stagnation suggests the market is awaiting new signals from upcoming key economic reports.

3. Causes of Zinc Price Fluctuations During This Period

The volatility of zinc prices in July 2026 is not random but the result of a combination of many direct and indirect causes:

Tightening Supply of Zinc Concentrate

One of the main reasons keeping zinc prices at a high level above 3,600 USD/mt is the global shortage of zinc concentrate. In 2026, several major mines in Australia and South America encountered technical issues and declining ore grades. The lack of raw materials has forced smelters to cut capacity or increase treatment charges (TC/RC), thereby driving up the cost of zinc ingots.

Energy Costs Remain High

Zinc smelting is an extremely energy-intensive process. Although the energy crisis has cooled compared to previous years, electricity prices in Europe and some parts of Asia remain high due to strict carbon emission regulations and the transition to green energy. This creates a "floor" for zinc prices, making it difficult for prices to drop significantly below the 3,400 USD/mt threshold.

Recovery of the Infrastructure and Automotive Sectors

Zinc demand primarily comes from galvanizing steel used in construction and automotive parts manufacturing. In July 2026, many major infrastructure projects in developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia and India, entered a phase of accelerated construction. Furthermore, the boom in electric vehicles (EVs) – which use more zinc in anti-corrosion components – has created sustainable demand for the market.

4. Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts on Zinc Prices

Zinc prices are not only affected by internal industry supply and demand laws but are also strongly influenced by global macroeconomic factors. In the context of July 2026, there are 3 key macroeconomic factors to note:

Monetary Policy and the Strength of the USD

Zinc prices are denominated in USD, so any fluctuation in this currency directly affects the metal's value. In the first week of July 2026, reports on US inflation showed signs of cooling, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might ease monetary policy. When the USD weakens or trades sideways, commodities like zinc become "cheaper" for investors holding other currencies, thereby stimulating buying interest and pushing prices up.

China's Economic Situation

China remains the world's largest consumer of zinc. Any signal from this second-largest economy can shake the market. In July 2026, the Chinese government announced additional economic stimulus packages focusing on the real estate and renewable energy sectors. This has reinforced investor confidence that zinc demand will not decline in the medium term.

Green Transition and ESG Trends

2026 marks an important milestone in fulfilling environmental commitments. Regulations on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have begun to be applied more widely, making it difficult for zinc producers with high emissions. This inadvertently reduces the supply of "dirty zinc" and pushes the price of "green zinc" (produced using renewable energy) to a new level. Investors today look not only at price figures but also at the sustainability certifications of the supply source.

5. Impact on the Vietnamese Market

In Vietnam, domestic zinc prices fluctuate almost in line with LME (London Metal Exchange) prices. With the current price of approximately 95 million VND/ton, manufacturers of galvanized steel, steel pipes, and mechanical parts in Vietnam are facing intertwined challenges and opportunities.

• For Manufacturers: High input material costs force businesses to adjust selling prices. This could slow down the recovery momentum of the civil construction industry due to rising material costs. However, for galvanized steel sheet exporters, the fact that global zinc prices remain high helps them maintain good profit margins if they have previously stocked up on low-cost inventory.
• For the Consumer Market: Zinc-related products such as roofing sheets, steel mesh, and galvanized steel wire may see slight price adjustments at the end of July to reflect the increase in global raw material prices.

6. Outlook and Forecast for the Second Half of July 2026

Based on the above analysis, we provide the following outlook for zinc price trends in the coming weeks of July 2026:

Most Likely Scenario: Zinc prices will continue to maintain a state of accumulation and trade sideways within the range of 3,550 - 3,650 USD/mt. The market needs stronger catalysts from Q2 GDP figures of major economies to break through the 3,700 USD resistance level.

However, investors and businesses should pay special attention to unexpected geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply chains. Closely monitoring inventory at LME warehouses is also an important indicator. If inventory levels continue to fall sharply, zinc prices could well set new short-term highs.

Advice for Businesses: In the context of zinc prices being at a relatively high and stable level, businesses should prioritize inventory risk management strategies. Signing forward contracts or options could be an effective solution to lock in input costs, avoiding unwanted price shocks at the end of the year.

In summary, the zinc market in July 2026 reflects a global economy that is striving to recover but remains cautious. At a price of 3,614.30 USD/mt, zinc remains one of the metal commodities with strong resilience and potential for stable long-term growth due to its irreplaceable role in modern industry.