Zinc Market in September 2026: Significant Volatility Around the $4,000 Threshold and Macroeconomic Challenges

Overview of Zinc Price Movements in the First Half of September 2026

The global non-ferrous metals market, particularly zinc, is experiencing a highly volatile period in September 2026. Following a relatively stable August, zinc prices have witnessed sharp fluctuations with a wide range since the beginning of September. According to the latest data updated as of September 11, 2026, the spot price of zinc on the international market stands at $3,865.60/mt, equivalent to approximately 100,136,435 VND/ton.

Although the current price shows a slight downward trend compared to the peak days earlier, the overall picture shows that zinc prices remain high compared to the year's average. The average price for September to date has reached $3,927.33/mt (approximately 101,735,520 VND/ton), a significant increase compared to the August average of $3,763.94/mt (approximately 97,502,984 VND/ton). This indicates that upward price pressure remains present despite technical corrections.

The fluctuation range over the past 30 days has been extremely large, from a low of $3,695.90/mt to a peak of $4,036.70/mt. A difference of more than $340 per ton in just one month reflects the unstable sentiment of investors and rapid changes in fundamental supply-demand factors.

Detailed Analysis of Weekly Price Fluctuations (01/09 - 11/09)

In the first 11 days of September 2026, zinc price movements can be divided into two distinct phases:

• Growth Phase (01/09 - 09/09): Starting the month at $3,857.60/mt on September 2, zinc prices saw a consecutive series of increases. Notably, from September 6 to September 9, prices broke out strongly from $3,927.80 to a peak of $4,036.70/mt. This is the highest price recorded in many months, surpassing the critical psychological resistance level of $4,000.
• Correction Phase (10/09 - 11/09): After hitting the peak, zinc prices began to show signs of "running out of steam." On September 10, the price retreated to $3,875.40 and continued to fall to $3,865.60 on September 11. Although the percentage change compared to September 10 was slightly positive (+0.098%), compared to the peak on September 9, the price has lost approximately $171/mt.

Analysts view this decline as a technical profit-taking move after prices rose too quickly in a short period. However, the price level around $3,865 is still considered a fairly solid support for the market in the context of persistent global supply bottlenecks.

Causes of Current Zinc Price Volatility

There are many intertwined reasons for the strong volatility of zinc prices in the first weeks of September 2026, including both industry-specific factors and external impacts.

1. Inventory Status at Major Exchanges

One of the main drivers pushing zinc prices above the $4,000 level on September 9 was the continuous decline in inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME). As reserves fell to alarming levels, speculators feared a shortage of spot supply, leading to a price surge. However, when new stock was added to warehouses or consumption demand slowed, this pressure eased, causing prices to adjust to current levels.

2. Energy Costs and Refining Operations

Zinc is one of the most energy-intensive metals to refine. With energy prices in Europe and some parts of Asia showing signs of heating up again at the beginning of autumn 2026, zinc smelters are facing the challenge of rising production costs. Some plants have had to cut capacity, which directly reduces the supply of refined zinc in the global market.

3. Demand from the Galvanized Steel Industry

Approximately 50% of global zinc consumption is used for galvanizing to protect steel from corrosion. At the beginning of September, major infrastructure projects in emerging economies and a slight recovery in the Chinese construction sector boosted temporary demand. However, as macroeconomic data showed uneven growth, expectations for long-term demand wavered, leading to the price drop on September 11.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts on Zinc Prices

Zinc prices do not fluctuate solely based on supply and demand laws but are also deeply affected by global macroeconomic variables.

Monetary Policy and the Strength of the USD

Zinc prices are denominated in USD; therefore, any movement in the DXY (US Dollar Index) has an inverse effect on the price of this metal. In the first week of September, signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) about maintaining high interest rates to control inflation caused the USD to strengthen. As the USD rises, zinc becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby reducing demand and pulling prices down.

China's Economic Situation

As the world's largest consumer of zinc, every movement in the Chinese economy serves as a "compass" for zinc prices. During this period, the Chinese government's economic stimulus policies targeting the real estate and electric vehicle manufacturing sectors are being closely monitored. If China's industrial production (PMI) data released in September falls short of expectations, zinc prices will face further downward pressure.

Green Energy Transition Trend

In the long term, zinc plays a crucial role in the clean energy revolution. Zinc is used in energy storage systems and to protect offshore wind power structures. Environmental commitments by G7 nations in 2026 are creating significant potential demand, acting as a "floor" that prevents zinc prices from falling too deeply despite short-term fluctuations.

Impact of Zinc Prices on the Vietnamese Market

In Vietnam, fluctuations in global zinc prices have a direct and immediate impact on domestic production and trading enterprises. With the current price of approximately 100.1 million VND/ton, Vietnamese businesses are facing many challenges.

For the steel industry: Manufacturers of steel pipes, galvanized box steel, and galvanized corrugated iron are the most heavily affected. Zinc prices account for a significant proportion of production costs. When zinc prices remain high (averaging over $3,900/mt in September), output product prices must be adjusted upward, putting pressure on construction contractors and end consumers.

For import activities: Vietnam still relies partly on imported zinc ingots. Global price volatility combined with USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations makes cost planning for businesses more difficult. Many companies are tending to be cautious with imports, mainly maintaining safe inventory levels rather than importing in bulk.

Outlook and Forecast for the Second Half of September 2026

Based on actual data and macroeconomic analysis, the zinc market in the coming weeks of September 2026 is likely to enter a phase of accumulation and divergence. After the correction from the $4,036 peak, zinc prices may find a new equilibrium in the $3,800 - $3,950/mt range.

Possible scenarios:

• Positive Scenario: If economic data from China and the US are more optimistic than forecast, and LME inventories continue to decline, zinc prices could return to test the $4,000/mt threshold once again.
• Cautious Scenario: If the pressure from the USD is too great and actual consumption demand in key manufacturing regions remains weak, zinc prices could retreat to the $3,700 - $3,750/mt support zone.

Advice for investors and businesses: In a market with a wide fluctuation range (up to nearly 10% within 30 days), businesses need to closely monitor daily reports. Using price hedging tools on exchanges can be an optimal solution to protect profits against unexpected price shocks.

In summary, zinc prices for the week from September 1 to September 11, 2026, have shown a vibrant but equally risky market. Although prices are in a short-term downward trend after hitting a peak, the monthly average price remains at a record high, requiring flexible adaptation from businesses and manufacturers in Vietnam.