Thai 25% Broken Rice Market Report November 2026: $472/Ton Price Floor and Impact on the Food Supply Chain

Overview of the Thai 25% Broken Rice Market in November 2026

Entering November 2026, the international rice market has shown a clear divergence across quality segments. Notably, Thai 25% broken rice – a representative of the medium-standard rice segment serving mass consumption and processing needs – is maintaining a stable trading status with a slight upward bias. Specifically, the average price was established at $472.00/ton (equivalent to approximately 12,084,144 VND/ton), marking an increase of +2.39% (up $11.00/ton or 281,622 VND/ton) compared to the previous month's average of $461.00/ton.

The price fluctuation range over the past 30 days has remained narrow, between $461.00 and $472.00/ton. This signals that the market is establishing a solid technical support zone, reflecting a temporary supply-demand balance following the volatility caused by global grain trade policies in previous quarters.

Price Trends for Thai 25% Broken Rice in International and Vietnamese Markets

In the global export market, the $472.00/ton FOB Bangkok price for Thai 25% broken rice is exerting direct competitive pressure on other major rice exporting countries in Asia:

• In the export market: Thai 25% broken rice maintains a reasonable price gap compared to premium 5% broken rice (which is currently anchored about $40 - $55/ton higher). The $472/ton price point makes this product an attractive option for traditional customers in Africa (such as Ivory Coast and Senegal) and several South Asian nations seeking shipments with cost-optimized import expenses.
• In the Vietnamese market: Although Vietnam is a leading rice exporter, Thai 25% broken rice remains an important benchmark for the domestic market. Vietnam's export price for 25% broken rice in November 2026 fluctuated around $455 - $468/ton. The higher price of Thai rice (+4 to +17 USD/ton) creates favorable competitive room for Vietnamese exporters in large tenders to the Philippines and Indonesia. Simultaneously, in the domestic market, food processing and animal feed plants in the South are closely monitoring this price to balance the usage ratio of substitute materials such as domestic broken rice, corn, or imported wheat.

Factors Driving the Increase and Sustaining the Price Floor

The 2.39% increase in the price of rice 25% broken in Thailand over the recent period stems from a combination of practical supply and demand factors:

1. Increased procurement costs for domestic raw paddy in Thailand:
During the early harvest season at the end of 2026, weather in Thailand's Central and Northeastern provinces saw localized late rains, slightly disrupting harvesting and drying progress. Farmers and local traders have tended to hold stock in anticipation of better prices from exporters, forcing milling plants to raise raw paddy procurement prices, pushing the FOB finished product price up by $11/ton.

2. Demand for strategic reserve replenishment from importing markets:
Net-importing nations in the Middle East and West Africa have stepped up the signing of delivery contracts for November and December 2026 to ensure food security for the festive season and ahead of the 2027 Lunar New Year holiday. Strong absorption demand for the low-to-mid-range rice segment has prevented a price decline for the 25% broken product line.

3. Milling structure allocation strategy:
Many large agricultural trading corporations in Thailand are prioritizing processing capacity for the Jasmine and 5% broken rice segments to serve high-margin orders. Consequently, the proportion of 25% broken rice released to the spot market is not excessive, keeping the supply-demand balance in a state of moderate tightness.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Influences on Thai 25% Rice Prices

The rice market does not operate independently but is strongly influenced by global macroeconomic variables in November 2026:

Exchange rate fluctuations (THB/USD and VND/USD):
The Thai Baht (THB) has remained relatively strong in recent weeks due to tourism investment inflows and a recovering current account surplus. As the THB appreciates against the USD, Thai traders' USD-denominated export offers must be adjusted upward to compensate for revenue losses when converted into local currency. Conversely, the stable fluctuation of the VND helps Vietnamese rice maintain its international price competitiveness.

India's agricultural trade policy:
India's adjustments to export taxes and quotas on non-Basmati white rice remain a psychological "anchor" for the entire Asian market. Although India has gradually eased exports, the price floor and strict monitoring regulations from New Delhi prevent a flood of cheap goods from collapsing the general price level. This indirectly keeps the price of Thai 25% broken rice anchored above the $470/ton mark.

Logistics costs and maritime supply chains:
Long-haul ocean freight rates and fuel surcharges in Q4 2026 are under pressure from instability on key international shipping routes. Rising transport costs lead importers to prioritize contracts with partners possessing stable transport capacity and modern seaports, such as Thailand, accepting the FOB price premium in exchange for delivery schedule reliability.

Trend Forecast and Recommendations for Trading Enterprises

Based on technical indicators and the macroeconomic context of November 2026, the short-term outlook for Thai rice prices (25% broken) is as follows:

• Base Case (70% probability): The price of 25% broken rice will continue to trade sideways within the $470.00 - $478.00/ton range through the end of November 2026. Peak harvest supply at the end of the season will limit runaway growth, but replenishment demand from international partners will prevent prices from falling deep below $465/ton.
• Volatility Case (30% probability):* If extreme adverse weather conditions affect actual harvest yields, or if crude oil prices escalate, causing a spike in ocean freight costs, the FOB price could be pushed above the $480/ton threshold.

Strategic Recommendations:

For Vietnamese rice exporters, the current price gap with Thailand opens a golden opportunity to push for orders in the 25% broken segment to African and Chinese markets. It is necessary to leverage the competitive price advantage while strictly managing futures contract risks to avoid the trap of rising ocean freight costs.

For domestic animal feed and food processing units, the fact that international mid-range rice prices remain above 12 million VND/ton is a signal to rebalance raw material sources. Businesses should proactively sign long-term supply contracts for domestic rice by-products before entering the peak procurement period of the lunar year-end.