Peanut Market Report November 2026: Slight Upward Momentum Amid Sustainable Accumulation Trend

Entering the period of November 2026 (01/11/2026 – 30/11/2026), the international agricultural market in general and the oilseed sector in particular recorded notable adjustments. Among these, peanuts continued to maintain a stable state but showed a slight upward trend at high price levels. The demand for reserves to serve the food processing industry during the year-end festive season, combined with crop developments in key producing countries, has created a solid foundation for the current price level.

Overview of domestic and international peanut price developments in November 2026

According to updated market data, peanut kernel prices in international trade have reached 1,600.00 USD/ton (equivalent to approximately 40,963,200 VND/ton). Compared to the previous month's average of 1,563.00 USD/ton (approximately 40,015,926 VND/ton), prices recorded a growth of +2.37% (equivalent to an absolute increase of +37.00 USD/ton, approximately 947,274 VND/ton). The fluctuation range over the past 30 days has been between 1,563.00 – 1,600.00 USD/ton, reflecting the stability and narrowing amplitude of the market following the strong volatility seen at the beginning of the crop year.

In the domestic Vietnamese market, peanut price levels also fluctuated in line with global trends, maintaining stability in major growing regions and trading centers:

• North Central Coast region (Nghe An, Ha Tinh): Selected grade 1 peanut kernels reached prices ranging from 42,000 – 45,000 VND/kg depending on quality and moisture content. Ex-factory dried unshelled peanuts held steady around 26,000 – 29,000 VND/kg. Supply here is beginning to become scarce as large storage warehouses have completed their main procurement rounds.
• Central Highlands region (Dak Lak, Gia Lai): Purchase prices for raw peanut kernels fluctuated in the range of 39,500 – 41,500 VND/kg. Logistics activities transporting goods to oil pressing and confectionery processing plants in the South are bustling.
• Southern region (Tay Ninh, Mekong Delta): High domestic consumption demand for food processing craft villages kept prices firm at 43,000 – 46,000 VND/kg for goods selected for roasted peanuts and confectionery.

Analysis of causes for price fluctuations in the current period

The slight increase of +2.37% in the peanut market is not speculative in nature but reflects the actual supply-demand balance in the global supply chain. There are three core groups of factors directly affecting peanut prices in November 2026:

1. Divergence in harvest progress among major exporters

In the Northern Hemisphere, major producers such as the United States, China, and India have basically completed their main autumn-winter harvest. Reports evaluating actual yields in some US peanut belt states show that production met expectations, but the proportion of kernels meeting high-end commercial export standards (Jumbo/Runner grade) was lower than expected due to localized drought during the pod-filling stage. This pushed up prices for high-quality peanuts, dragging the average price index up by 37.00 USD/ton.

2. Accumulation of raw materials for year-end production cycles

November of each year is always the peak for the global food processing industry. Corporations producing peanut butter, confectionery, and snacks in North American, European, and East Asian markets are increasing spot and short-term forward contracts to prepare for the upcoming Christmas, New Year, and Lunar New Year 2027 holiday seasons. Increased purchasing power from this segment has absorbed large inventories at major export ports.

3. Costs of strict processing and storage standards

Aflatoxin residue control standards in major importing markets are becoming increasingly stringent, especially in the European Union (EU) and Japan. Investment costs for heat drying systems, sterilization, and cold storage facilities to control moisture for exporters in India and South America have increased significantly, directly contributing to the CFR/CIF offer prices at destination ports.

Analysis of macroeconomic impacts on the global peanut market

Beyond pure agronomic supply-demand factors, the peanut market in November 2026 is strongly influenced by the global macroeconomic picture:

• Correlation with the global vegetable oil market: Peanuts are one of the high-nutritional-value oilseeds. In the context of palm oil prices in Malaysia and soybean oil on the CBOT exchange remaining at high, stable levels due to biofuel blending policies in Indonesia and Brazil, the demand for peanut oil pressing in traditional consuming markets like India and China has increased, helping to anchor a firm support floor for raw nut prices.
• Impact of exchange rate and interest rate variables: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable during this period; however, the USD/VND exchange rate anchored around 25,600 VND/USD kept the converted value of imported peanuts into Vietnam at a high level (approximately 40,963,200 VND/ton), indirectly pushing domestic manufacturers to increase the proportion of domestic raw material procurement to optimize financial costs.
• Climate change and the transition of the planting cycle in the Southern Hemisphere: Argentina and Brazil are entering the peanut planting season for the new 2026/2027 crop year. Concerns about erratic weather and delayed rains in Argentina's key growing region (Cordoba province) are making the market cautious. Traders tend to hold stock to monitor actual planting acreage in the Southern Hemisphere rather than pushing for sell-offs.
• Logistics costs and bulk supply chains: International sea freight rates for containerized and bagged agricultural goods remain under pressure as shipping lines maintain routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Extended transit times increase storage and cargo insurance costs, forcing importers to accept price premiums to ensure supply chain security.

Assessment of impacts on the domestic market and recommendations

For the Vietnamese market, the current price level around 40.96 million VND/ton (equivalent to nearly 41,000 VND/kg of international raw material) presents both opportunities and challenges for stakeholders in the value chain:

For food processing and trading enterprises: It is necessary to proactively review inventories and complete the signing of raw material orders before entering December – a time when peak demand could push prices higher due to localized shortages. Diversifying supply sources from domestic specialized regions such as Nghe An and Dak Lak will help minimize exchange rate fluctuation risks.

For farmers and peanut cooperatives: This is a favorable time to sell stored goods at relatively good prices, ensuring stable profit margins. However, farmers need to focus on drying techniques and mold prevention to meet the increasingly high standards of processing facilities, avoiding panic selling when quality declines.

Market outlook forecast for late 2026

Overall, the peanut market throughout November 2026 showed good resilience and a stable price structure. The +2.37% growth trend this month is forecast to continue creating positive sentiment for the first weeks of December 2026. In the short term, the psychological resistance level of 1,620.00 USD/ton will be a key test if import demand from China increases sharply.

Conversely, if planting progress in the Southern Hemisphere proceeds smoothly with ideal weather conditions, peanut prices may quickly return to a stable accumulation state around the 1,580.00 – 1,600.00 USD/ton range. Businesses and investors need to continue closely monitoring updated crop reports in South America as well as agricultural trade policy management moves in the coming weeks.