Peanut Market October 2026: Record Highs at $1,563/Ton and Global Supply Chain Pressures

The international agricultural market entered October 2026 with significant volatility, with peanut kernels attracting major attention from traders and food processing enterprises. Following a strong growth trend that pushed peanut prices from an average of $1,250.00/ton (approximately 32.37 million VND/ton) in the previous period to the $1,563.00/ton mark (equivalent to approximately 40,473,104 VND/ton), the market maintained a sideways accumulation state at this new historical peak throughout the period from October 1, 2026, to October 31, 2026. With a cumulative fluctuation of +25.04% (+$313.00/ton), the peanut industry is establishing a new price floor reflecting widespread supply tightening.

1. Global and Vietnamese Peanut Market Developments in October 2026

Throughout October 2026, the international peanut price trend line remained stable at a high level following a spectacular breakout at the end of the third quarter. The 30-day price range fluctuated between $1,250.00 and $1,563.00/ton, reflecting the intense tug-of-war between input cost pressures and purchasing demand from oil-crushing plants as well as global confectionery production chains.

In the international market, supply from key exporting nations such as India, Argentina, the US, and Senegal all recorded high offer prices. Import demand from China and European Union (EU) countries remains very firm, especially for shipments meeting high standards for Aflatoxin residue control.

In Vietnam, raw peanut prices in key regions such as Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Dak Lak, and Tay Ninh also anchored at unprecedented highs:

• Dried unshelled peanuts: Ranged from 28,000 - 32,000 VND/kg depending on quality and moisture content.
• Selected peanut kernels (for confectionery processing and export): Reached 43,000 - 48,000 VND/kg at factory warehouses, an increase of approximately 20 - 25% compared to the same period last year.
• Oil-crushing raw peanuts: Maintained at the 38,000 - 41,000 VND/kg threshold as domestic consumers increasingly prioritize natural vegetable oils.

2. Analysis of Core Causes Leading to the Price Breakout (+25.04%)

The surge of over $313/ton in a short period and the establishment of a $1,563.00/ton price floor stem from a combination of real supply-demand factors:

Extreme Weather Events Reducing Crop Yields

2026 witnessed complex weather patterns with prolonged heatwaves in key North American peanut-growing regions and localized unseasonal rains during harvest time in several Indian states. In Vietnam and Southeast Asia, abnormal storms at the end of the third quarter affected the harvest and drying progress of the summer-autumn crop, causing high loss rates and a serious decline in the volume of commercial-grade peanuts.

Carryover Stocks at Record Lows

Reserve stocks from the previous season at major ports were significantly depleted after demand for industrial oil crushing and ready-to-eat food consumption boomed in the first half of the year. As the market entered the stocking cycle for the year-end holiday season (Q4), importers were forced to accept high offer prices to sign forward contracts, pushing both spot and futures prices up by more than 25%.

Rising Production and Agricultural Input Costs

Costs for organic fertilizers, biological pesticides, and especially peanut harvesting labor have increased by an average of 12 - 18% compared to previous seasons. Due to the nature of peanut cultivation in many regions still relying heavily on manual labor (from pulling and picking to drying), escalating labor costs have been directly reflected in the ex-factory price of the product.

3. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

The peanut market in October 2026 did not operate in isolation but was strongly influenced by the global macroeconomic picture:

USD/VND Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Monetary Policy

The US Dollar maintained relative strength as central banks remained cautious regarding monetary easing paths. The current exchange rate of approximately 25,895 VND/USD makes imported peanut prices calculated in VND significantly more expensive (the $1,563/mt level is equivalent to over 40.47 million VND/ton). This provides a firm support for domestic agricultural prices while creating significant pressure on the profit margins of processing enterprises dependent on imported raw materials from India or Africa.

Logistics Costs and Maritime Transport Chains

Although maritime freight rates have cooled compared to previous periods of tension, the implementation of stricter regulations on maritime carbon emission reductions and fuel surcharges has increased long-haul container shipping costs. Peanuts are a commodity requiring ventilated storage or specialized containers to avoid Aflatoxin-producing mold; therefore, increased storage and transport costs have pushed CIF prices at destination ports to record highs.

Competition in the Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Group

Global soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices in October 2026 remained in the high average range due to mandatory biofuel (biodiesel) blending policies in Indonesia, the US, and Brazil. When alternative vegetable oil prices are expensive, the demand for using peanuts for both manual and industrial oil crushing in Asian markets has surged, creating an additional consumption channel that competes fiercely with the snack food segment.

4. Outlook and Recommendations for Businesses and Farmers for Late 2026

After successfully anchoring the $1,563/ton mark throughout October 2026, the peanut market is forecast to maintain a stable state with quality-based differentiation in the final months of the year:

• For peanut farmers: This is a favorable period to sell winter crop products at profitable wholesale prices. However, farmers need to focus on drying and airy storage, controlling moisture levels below 9% to prevent mold, and avoiding being pressured by traders due to discolored shells or fungal infections.
• For processing and trading enterprises: It is necessary to proactively review inventory levels for the peak Lunar New Year confectionery production period. With current high raw material prices, chasing large quantities carries risks as Southern Hemisphere growing regions (such as Argentina) enter new planting phases. Businesses should diversify supply partners and consider hedging tools in the international futures market to fix input cost margins.

In general, the peanut market in October 2026 has affirmed its position in a new price-increase cycle based on a foundation of high-quality supply shortages. At $1,563.00/ton (over 40.4 million VND/ton), the peanut industry is opening up good profit margins for producers but also poses challenging cost-optimization problems for the entire agricultural processing value chain in the final quarter of 2026.