Commodity Market Analysis for the Week of May 4, 2026 - May 10, 2026: Growth Trends Across Major Sectors

The commodity market for the week of May 4, 2026 - May 10, 2026, recorded a broad positive growth trend, highlighted by a strong breakout in the agricultural and precious metals sectors. The composite commodity price index remained in the green as investors reacted to macroeconomic data and localized supply tightening. In the Vietnamese market, global price fluctuations directly impacted input costs for manufacturing and export processing enterprises.

SECTOR: Agriculture

Cocoa prices led the growth in the agricultural sector with an impressive increase of 5.53%, closing the session on May 10, 2026, at 4,182.00 USD/mt. This movement pushed the converted price of Cocoa to approximately 110,023,402 VND/ton, reflecting concerns over supply in key growing regions. Additionally, other commodities recorded stability and slight growth:

• Rubber: Recorded 222.60 JPY/kg (up 1.37%), equivalent to approximately 48,713,784 VND/ton.
• Arabica Coffee: Maintained a high level of 274.80 UScents/lb, up 0.57% compared to the previous week.
• Soybeans and Grains: Soybean prices rose 1.47% to 1,194.30 UScents/bu; corn rose 0.77% to 456.25 UScents/bu; wheat rose 1.1% to 619.00 UScents/bu.
• Sugar: Increased 1.03% to 14.69 UScents/lb.

The primary drivers for agricultural price movements this week were adverse weather conditions affecting harvest yields in South America and West Africa. In Vietnam, the steady rise in global rubber and coffee prices is a positive signal for exporters; however, the slight increase in animal feed costs (soybeans, corn) is putting pressure on production costs for domestic livestock farmers.

Outlook for next week: The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a sideways or slightly upward trend as year-end consumption demand begins to pick up.

SECTOR: Metals

Global Gold prices maintained their heat, closing the week at 4,715.90 USD/toz on May 10, 2026, up 0.63% from the previous week. This price converts to approximately 149,584,598 VND/tael, reflecting investor caution in the face of geopolitical volatility. Meanwhile, Silver was the most volatile commodity in the group, with a 2.5% increase to 80.32 USD/toz.

• Copper: Reached 628.22 UScents/lb; despite a slight 0.23% increase, it is assessed to be in a downward trend compared to previous expectations.
• Nickel: Increased 0.89% to 18,945.00 USD/mt (approximately 498,420,216 VND/ton).
• Aluminum and Zinc: Both commodities rose by 0.57% and 0.64%, respectively, reaching 3,503.10 USD/mt and 3,429.20 USD/mt.
• Platinum: Closed at 2,049.30 USD/toz, recording a slight decline in the general trend despite a 0.49% gain in the final session.

The weakening of the USD at certain points during the week supported prices for precious and base metals. For the Vietnamese market, domestic gold prices often lag and exhibit higher volatility than global prices, complicating financial planning for individuals and retail investors.

Outlook for next week: The precious metals group may face profit-taking pressure, while industrial metals like Copper and Aluminum will depend heavily on production data from major economies.

SECTOR: Energy

Brent crude oil prices surpassed the 100 USD threshold, closing the May 10, 2026 session at 101.29 USD/bbl, up 1.23% over the past week. WTI crude followed closely with a 0.64% increase, reaching 95.42 USD/bbl (approximately 2,510,386 VND/barrel). Other energy commodities also recorded stability:

• US Natural Gas: Increased 0.43% to 2.76 USD/mmbtu.
• Coal: Reached 131.75 USD/mt, up slightly by 0.34% compared to the previous week.

Energy prices remained high primarily due to production tightening decisions by major exporters and increased energy demand for summer production. The fact that Brent oil remains above 100 USD will put pressure on domestic gasoline prices in upcoming adjustment periods, indirectly affecting Vietnam's CPI.

Outlook for next week: Energy prices are forecast to continue fluctuating within a narrow range but will remain anchored at high levels due to unresolved supply risks.

SECTOR: Food

The global food market recorded mixed movements, with Pork prices rising 0.68% to 90.88 USD/lbs on May 10, 2026. Meanwhile, Chicken prices remained flat (0%) at 7.62 BRL/kg. Specifically:

• Beef: Increased slightly by 0.34% to 352.55 BRL/kg (approximately 1,456,496,866 VND/ton).
• Pork: The converted price reached approximately 5,270,839 VND/ton, stable compared to the monthly average.

Stable food consumption demand and slightly higher transportation costs are the main factors preventing food prices from falling significantly. In Vietnam, domestic live hog prices have a certain correlation with global pork prices, especially as large livestock enterprises adjust their supply plans for the second quarter.

Outlook for next week: Food prices are not expected to see major breakthroughs, depending primarily on livestock disease conditions and animal feed costs.

Most Notable Commodities of the Week

Cocoa and Silver were the two most prominent commodities over the past week, with growth exceeding the general market average. Cocoa, with a 5.53% increase, became the focal point of the agricultural sector, while Silver, with a 2.5% increase, showed that capital is flowing strongly into safe-haven assets alongside Gold. Conversely, Copper and Platinum, despite slight gains during the session, are still assessed to be in a downward correction phase (based on trend data analysis).

Forecast and Recommendations for Next Week (May 11, 2026 - May 17, 2026)

The price trend forecast for next week shows a clear divergence between sectors as macroeconomic factors begin to deeply permeate the market. The Energy and Agricultural sectors are likely to continue their upward momentum due to supply and weather issues. The Metals sector may enter a consolidation phase after a week of decent growth.

• If the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses and rises sharply, it will put pressure on USD-denominated commodity prices.
• Reports on oil inventories and interest rate decisions by major central banks.
• El Nino/La Nina weather conditions affecting harvests in major agricultural nations.

Recommendations for Vietnamese enterprises and investors: Enterprises importing raw materials (grains, metals) should consider futures contracts to lock in prices and avoid the risks of exchange rate volatility and rising commodity prices. Individual investors should be cautious with Gold as prices are at historical peaks, avoiding short-term FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment.