Commodity Market Analysis Report for the Week of 08/24/2026 - 08/30/2026

The global commodity market during the week of 08/24 to 08/30/2026 recorded complex fluctuations driven by the combined impact of geopolitical conflicts in Russia and severe natural disaster risks in the Asian region. Energy and agricultural commodity price indices faced significant pressure from attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, while flash floods and glacier collapses in the Nepal-China region are threatening cross-border logistics supply chains. In Vietnam, the most significant highlight is the robust growth of seafood exports to the Chinese market, reaching a milestone of over 1 billion USD in the first 7 months of the year.

GROUP: Energy

Crude oil prices maintained a stable upward trend as Russia was forced to import jet fuel following a series of attacks on domestic refineries. Closing the session on 08/30, Brent crude reached 88.29 USD/bbl (+0.26%), while WTI oil traded at 83.44 USD/bbl (+0.08%). The damage to Russian refineries not only reduced global petroleum supply but also altered trade flows, as a major energy-exporting nation like Russia must now seek alternative supplies from abroad.

• Coal: Recorded the strongest gain in the group at 6.47%, reaching 139.75 USD/mt. Demand for early winter stockpiling in Europe and supply disruptions from mining regions due to extreme weather were the primary drivers.
• US Natural Gas: Increased slightly by 0.69% to 2.88 USD/mmbtu. Unfavorable news from Qatar—one of the world's leading LNG exporters—regarding potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz has caused concern for the European gas market.

Outlook: Energy prices are forecast to continue climbing next week if attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Eastern Europe show no signs of cooling down.

GROUP: Metals

Gold continued to assert its position as a safe-haven asset by maintaining a record price of 4,454.10 USD/toz on 08/30/2026. Compared to the monthly average (4,398.49 USD), gold prices have risen by more than 3%, equivalent to approximately 140 million VND/tael. Concerns over a "global catastrophe" and the risk of nuclear war, as mentioned in recent news, have driven strong capital inflows into precious metals.

• Silver and Platinum: Fluctuated slightly at 66.15 USD/toz (+0.45%) and 1,833.60 USD/toz (+1.09%), respectively.
• Industrial Metals: Copper (654.33 UScents/lb) and Zinc (3,857.80 USD/mt) rose slightly due to expectations of a production recovery in China, despite natural disaster risks in the western part of the country.

Outlook: The precious metals group will maintain its upward momentum in the short term due to macroeconomic instability, while base metals will depend heavily on China's production data next week.

GROUP: Agricultural Products

Wheat and soybean oil prices recorded significant gains over the past week due to concerns regarding food security and supply chain disruptions in Europe. Specifically, wheat rose sharply by 3.30% to 783.50 UScents/bu, while soybean oil increased by 3.47% to reach 70.99 UScents/lb. Belgium's move to block attempts to seize Russian assets has created further legal and trade tensions, indirectly affecting the flow of agricultural products from the Black Sea region.

• Rubber: Traded at 239.00 JPY/kg (+1.14%). Demand from the electric vehicle industry (such as new models from Honda or Jaecoo) is supporting stable rubber prices.
• Arabica Coffee: Reached a high of 312.42 UScents/lb; although slightly down from the monthly average, it remains at a historic threshold due to concerns that climate change is affecting key growing regions.
• Rice: International rice prices rose 1.72% to 15.10 USD/CWT. In Vietnam, although data for 08/30 has not yet updated the latest prices, the general trend remains positive thanks to import demand from traditional partners.

Outlook: Natural disasters in Nepal and China (glacier collapses, flash floods) may hinder road transport of agricultural products, and prices for essential goods are forecast to remain volatile with an upward bias.

GROUP: Food

The food market witnessed a breakthrough in Vietnam's seafood industry as China spent over 1 billion USD on imports in the first 7 months of 2026. Chinese consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for quality products from Vietnam, despite domestic economic difficulties. This creates a positive psychological momentum for domestic shrimp and pangasius exporters.

• Pork: Global prices reached 81.90 USD/lbs (+1.71%), reflecting a recovery in red meat consumption in major markets.
• Beef and Chicken: Maintained stability with a slight increase of less than 0.3%. News regarding the "Indian buffalo controversy" also attracted attention, indicating stricter quarantine and food origin requirements in the Vietnamese market.

Outlook: Food prices will remain stable; however, rising transport costs due to energy prices may push retail prices higher in the coming period.

Top Volatile Commodities of the Week

Coal and Sugar were the two commodities with the most distinct breakthroughs in this week's tracking portfolio. Coal surged 6.47% due to supply risks and concerns over energy infrastructure being targeted in Eastern Europe. Sugar also recorded a 3.62% increase (reaching 17.55 UScents/lb) due to negative weather forecasts in top exporting nations, combined with rising logistics costs.

Forecast and Recommendations for Next Week (08/31/2026 - 09/06/2026)

Trend Forecast: The commodity market in the first week of September will face significant pressure from non-economic factors. Crude oil and gas prices are expected to rise if tensions in the Middle East (related to Qatar) and Russia continue to escalate. Gold remains the preferred channel for institutional investors as geopolitical risks show no signs of cooling.

Recommendations:

• For exporters: Seize opportunities from the Chinese market for the seafood sector, while also locking in transport costs early to avoid the risk of sharp oil price fluctuations.
• For investors: Exercise caution with "chasing" buy positions in the agricultural group (wheat, soybeans) as prices are already at high levels and are directly affected by financial sanction policies between the EU and Russia.
• Risk factors to monitor: Flooding in Nepal-China could cause disruptions in the supply chain for components and raw materials; developments in attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia.