Commodity Market Summary Report: August 31, 2026

The global commodity market during the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026, recorded mixed fluctuations with a slight upward trend in the energy and strategic agricultural sectors, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The serious escalation in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, combined with shifts in the Eurasian power map following the SCO summit, has exerted pressure on global supply chains. In Vietnam, attention was focused on the bank interest rate fluctuations on September 6 and the strong recovery of leading enterprises such as Vietjet and TKV, creating a multifaceted macroeconomic picture.

GROUP: Agricultural Products

Agricultural prices over the past week witnessed strong divergence, particularly the breakout of grains and industrial raw materials. Wheat was the most impressive performer in the group with a 2.53% increase, closing the session on September 6 at 732.75 UScents/bu (approximately 7,014,630 VND/ton).

Arabica Coffee: Maintained a high level of 295.60 UScents/lb (equivalent to 169,787,128 VND/ton); although it only rose slightly by 0.92%, the monthly average price remained anchored at a high threshold due to concerns over global logistics.
Soybeans and by-products: The price of Soybeans stabilized at 1,293.80 UScents/bu. However, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal trended upward by 0.66% and 0.41%, respectively, due to increased consumption and crushing demand.
Rice: Global rice prices recorded a 1.28% increase, reaching 15.38 USD/CWT. In the domestic market, although there is no latest update on 5% broken rice data, the general trend remains influenced by Thailand's export policies and regional food security conditions.

Causes: The instability in the Gulf of Oman has directly threatened critical maritime shipping routes, increasing insurance and transportation costs for bulk agricultural commodities. Additionally, Russia's reception of firm moves from its European neighbors has raised concerns regarding grain supplies from the Black Sea region.

Outlook for next week: Agricultural prices are forecast to continue their slight upward momentum, especially for wheat and corn, as nations increase reserves in anticipation of unpredictable geopolitical developments.

GROUP: Metals

The precious and base metals market maintained a consolidation state within a narrow range, with gold continuing to be the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. Global Gold prices closed on September 6 at 4,432.60 USD/toz, equivalent to approximately 139,234,182 VND/tael, a slight increase of 0.07% compared to the beginning of the week.

Silver and Platinum: Fluctuations were negligible, at 65.99 USD/toz and 1,826.00 USD/toz, respectively.
Copper: Copper prices reached 659.70 UScents/lb (approximately 378,919,379 VND/ton), reflecting stable demand from the power and infrastructure sectors in the Eurasian region.
Base Metals (Nickel, Aluminum, Zinc): Most remained flat with fluctuations of less than 0.2%.

Vietnam Context: A major mineral enterprise, TKV, recorded impressive revenue of over 520 billion VND per day, indicating that domestic mining and metal trading activities are still growing very well despite international trade barriers.

Forecast: Precious metal prices could break out if tensions in the Persian Gulf are not eased. Industrial metals such as Copper and Aluminum will depend heavily on economic signals from China and the US in the coming week.

GROUP: Energy

Energy prices are facing clear upward pressure due to geopolitical risks in the world's "oil pockets." Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to 96.28 USD/bbl (approximately 2,508,431 VND/barrel) on September 6.

WTI Crude Oil: Increased 0.79%, reaching 91.48 USD/bbl. The spread between Brent and WTI reflects more direct concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply.
Natural Gas: Increased 1.22% to 2.98 USD/mmbtu, indicating that demand for heating and early energy storage in Europe is beginning to emerge.
Coal: Recorded a 1.12% increase, reaching 148.65 USD/mt, providing positive support for the revenues of energy and mineral corporations.

Analysis: Reports of the serious escalation in the Persian Gulf are the primary factor driving oil prices. Furthermore, the Slovak Prime Minister's statement regarding the failure of the West's anti-Russia strategy also implies that energy flows from Russia will remain an unpredictable variable for the EU.

GROUP: Food

The global food market was generally quite stable, with no major price shocks over the past week. Chicken meat was the commodity with the most distinct fluctuation, with a 0.93% increase, reaching 7.61 BRL/kg (approximately 31,439,345 VND/ton).

Beef: Maintained stability at 347.70 BRL/kg.
Pork: Global pork prices were at 82.30 USD/lbs, a slight decrease compared to the monthly average (82.96 USD), indicating that supply is still meeting consumption demand well.

Domestic market note: In Vietnam, demand for high-end services and food shows signs of shifting. The relocation of Trang Tien Ice Cream or the 44% revenue growth of Vietjet shows that the accommodation and catering service industry is recovering strongly, leading to stable demand for food ingredients.

Most notable commodities of the week

Wheat (+2.53%): Increased the most due to concerns over conflict and supply chain disruptions in regions neighboring Russia and the Middle East.
Natural Gas (+1.22%): Reflects concerns regarding energy security as the Eurasian power map changes following the SCO summit.
Gold: Although the percentage increase was not strong, the absolute value (139 million VND/tael) shows that inflationary pressure and geopolitical risks are at a very high level.

Forecast and recommendations for next week (September 7, 2026 – September 13, 2026)

Trend Forecast:

Energy: Continued bullish trend if the situation in the Persian Gulf shows no signs of cooling down. Brent oil may test the 100 USD/bbl threshold.
Agricultural Products: Slight upward trend. Wheat and Soybeans will be the focus of investment.
Metals: Gold will continue to consolidate at high price levels. Investors should be cautious with base metals as bank interest rate fluctuations (recorded in Vietnam on September 6) may affect production capital flows.

Risk factors to monitor:

Warfare: Developments in the Persian Gulf and new moves by Russia at the European border.
Financial Policy: Bank interest rates at major banks such as Agribank, Vietcombank, and BIDV will directly impact the cost of capital for commodity import-export enterprises.
Trade: The EU's Greenland "shield" against the US could open up new trade wars over rare resources and minerals.

Recommendation: Agricultural and energy import enterprises in Vietnam should consider locking in futures contracts to protect prices against maritime transport risks. Individual investors need to diversify their portfolios into safe assets like gold in the context that the real estate market is entering a phase of value purification.