Commodity Market Summary Report for the Week of July 27, 2026 - August 02, 2026

The global commodity market during the week of July 27 to August 02, 2026, recorded a broad-based growth trend across most key sectors amid geopolitical tensions and a "wait-and-see" sentiment regarding monetary policies. The U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to keep interest rates unchanged has had multidimensional impacts on both the Vietnamese stock and commodity markets. In particular, the conflicts in the Black Sea region between Russia and Ukraine, including strikes on oil refineries and the port of Odessa, have become the primary drivers pushing energy prices and strategic agricultural commodities higher.

SECTOR: Energy

Global crude oil prices maintained a steady upward momentum of over 1% last week due to concerns over supply disruptions in Eastern Europe. Specifically, Brent crude closed the week at 87.93 USD/bbl (up 1.21%), while WTI crude reached 84.67 USD/bbl (up 1.29%).

• Causes: Reports of Ukraine striking bomber bases and attacking major Russian oil refineries have directly pushed supply risk premiums higher. Furthermore, the war situation in Odessa and signals regarding potential Russian military landings have made energy transport corridors through the Black Sea precarious.
• Natural Gas and Coal: US Natural Gas rose slightly by 0.4% to 2.75 USD/mmbtu. Coal remained stable at 134.00 USD/mt (+0.04%) amid continued high electricity demand for the summer season.
• Outlook for next week: Energy prices may continue to fluctuate significantly if attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure persist. Investors should closely monitor moves from OPEC+ in light of these new developments.

SECTOR: Agricultural Products

The agricultural market witnessed a strong breakout in coffee and rubber prices, supported by logistics factors and recovering demand. Arabica coffee was the most impressive performer in the sector with a 2.8% increase, reaching 332.10 UScents/lb (equivalent to approximately 192.5 million VND/ton).

• Price Fluctuations: Rubber reached 216.30 JPY/kg (+1.31%), and sugar rose 1.59% to 14.66 UScents/lb. Grain commodities such as Corn (+1.12%, reaching 440.75 UScents/bu) and Soybeans (+0.45%, reaching 1,172.00 UScents/bu) also recorded gains.
• Causes: Transport disruptions at major seaports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased global logistics costs. In Vietnam, the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady has helped stabilize the exchange rate, supporting agricultural exports. However, rising bank non-performing loans (according to financial news on August 03) could affect credit flow for domestic agricultural procurement businesses.
• Outlook for next week: The upward trend may slow as the market has fully absorbed the geopolitical news. Coffee prices remain anchored at high levels due to long-term supply concerns.

SECTOR: Metals

Gold continued to assert its role as a safe-haven asset, surpassing the 4,000 USD/toz threshold amid global instability. Global gold prices closed the week at 4,043.00 USD/toz, up 1.47%, equivalent to approximately 128.17 million VND/tael.

• Precious Metals: Silver recorded a strong gain of 2.35%, reaching 57.62 USD/toz. The fact that the Fed has not cut interest rates but has provided cautious signals has led investors to shift capital from risky assets to precious metals.
• Industrial Metals: This group showed mixed performance. Nickel rose 0.35% to 17,255.00 USD/mt, and Zinc rose 0.77% to 3,645.50 USD/mt. Conversely, Copper recorded a downward trend (to 0.00 UScents/lb in weekend updated data) due to concerns over the economic growth rate of China – the world's largest consumer of copper.
• Outlook for next week: Gold prices may undergo a technical correction after hitting a peak, but the general trend remains upward if tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East do not de-escalate.

SECTOR: Food

Food prices maintained stability with a narrow fluctuation range of less than 0.5%. The pork and poultry markets saw no significant price breakthroughs last week.

• Price Details: Pork rose 0.43% to 98.85 USD/lbs. Beef and chicken in the Brazilian market (BRL) rose slightly by 0.1% and 0.14%, respectively.
• Context: In the domestic Vietnamese market, attention has been focused on legal issues and penalties in the pharmaceutical industry (the Cuu Long Pharmaceutical - DCL case) and regulations regarding traffic safety and cold-fine payments; this indirectly affects general consumer sentiment but has not directly impacted raw food prices.
• Outlook for next week: Food prices are expected to trade sideways. Global food supply remains sufficient to meet short-term demand.

Most Notable Commodities of the Week

Arabica Coffee (+2.8%) and Silver (+2.35%) were the two commodities with the most prominent growth. The rise in coffee prices reflects concerns over tightened supply chains due to the impact of attacks on seaports in Ukraine, while Silver followed the momentum of Gold as investors sought safety against geopolitical risks from Russia and its allies.

Forecast and Recommendations for Next Week (August 03, 2026 - August 09, 2026)

Trend Forecast:

• Energy: Expected to remain at high levels. Investors should pay special attention to news regarding Russia's response to Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.
• Agricultural Products: Rice and coffee prices may face profit-taking pressure. However, rubber prices may rise further due to recovering demand from the automotive industry.
• Metals: Gold will face strong resistance around the 4,100 USD zone. If there is further negative news regarding bank non-performing loans or recession, gold will continue to break records.

Risk Recommendations:

• Geopolitical Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering a new phase with deep strikes into enemy territory, which could cause supply shocks at any time.
• Financial Risk: Closely monitor the situation of bank non-performing loans in Vietnam and subsequent Fed decisions to adjust commodity portfolios accordingly.
• Policy Risk: New regulations on penalties and market control (such as Decree 168 mentioned in the news) may affect the operating costs of food logistics businesses.