Commodity Market Summary Report for the Week of June 29, 2026 - July 5, 2026

The global commodity market during the week of June 29 to July 5, 2026, recorded mixed fluctuations across sectors, amid escalating geopolitical risks and a sharp surge in logistics costs in Vietnam. New military tensions in Ukraine and Russia, coupled with reports that maritime transport costs in Vietnam are "hotter" than during the COVID-19 period, have placed significant pressure on supply chains and final commodity prices.

GROUP: Agricultural Products

Prices of key agricultural commodities maintained a slight and stable upward trend over the past week, although pressure from logistics costs is threatening the profit margins of export enterprises.

• Cocoa: Recorded a 1.1% increase for the week, closing the session on July 5 at 5,036.00 USD/mt (approximately 132.43 million VND/ton). This price is significantly higher than the monthly average (4,025.00 USD), indicating that supply remains tight.
• Arabica Coffee: Held at 302.16 UScents/lb (+0.32%), equivalent to approximately 175.17 million VND/ton. Despite being stable compared to the previous week, this price remains in a historically high range.
• Corn: Increased by 0.95% to 425.00 UScents/bu. The slight recovery in corn prices reflects stable demand for animal feed.
• Soybeans: Increased by 0.49%, reaching 1,131.80 UScents/bu (approximately 10.93 million VND/ton).

Causes and context: In Vietnam, the Ho Chi Minh City Logistics and Port Association has warned that transport costs are surging, directly affecting the competitiveness of agricultural exports. Additionally, concerns regarding Ukraine's path to EU accession (a major agricultural exporter) have also caused cautious sentiment in the global grain market.

GROUP: Metals

Precious metals and industrial metals rose in unison due to safe-haven demand in the face of military developments in Eastern Europe.

• Gold: Increased by 1.15% during the week, reaching 4,170.30 USD/toz on July 5, equivalent to approximately 132.21 million VND/tael. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, with strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Crimea, has pushed investors back to gold.
• Silver: The strongest performer in the group with a 2.41% increase, reaching 62.40 USD/toz.
• Zinc: Increased by 1.82%, reaching 3,549.60 USD/mt (approximately 93.34 million VND/ton).
• Copper: Increased slightly by 0.08%, holding at 622.88 UScents/lb.

Context in Vietnam: The domestic metal market is paying attention to the 57 trillion VND bauxite project of Duc Giang Chemicals (DGC) in Dak Nong following adjustments to the planning. This is an important signal for the mining and non-ferrous metal processing industry in the long term.

GROUP: Energy

Energy prices fluctuated within a narrow range but carry the risk of price increases due to attacks on energy infrastructure in the war zone.

• Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 0.42%, closing the week at 72.10 USD/bbl (approximately 1.89 million VND/barrel).
• WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 0.11%, reaching 68.76 USD/bbl.
• US Natural Gas: Decreased slightly by 0.46% compared to the monthly average, trading at 3.21 USD/mmbtu.
• Coal: Increased by 0.23%, reaching 128.80 USD/mt.

Impact analysis: Russia's strike on the headquarters in Zaporizhzhia and Ukraine's attack on an airbase in Crimea have raised concerns about energy supply disruptions from the Black Sea region. However, the rise in oil prices remains capped by a global economic outlook that has yet to truly break through.

GROUP: Food

The food market recorded price stability on international exchanges, but a "paradox" regarding the cost of living has emerged in Vietnam.

• Beef: Increased by 0.87%, reaching 329.85 BRL/kg (equivalent to approximately 1.36 billion VND/ton).
• Pork: Increased by 0.54%, reaching 93.85 USD/lbs (approximately 5.44 million VND/ton).
• Chicken: Remained absolutely stable at 7.20 BRL/kg.

In the Vietnamese market: Although domestic gasoline prices have tended to decrease consecutively in recent times, food prices at local markets and supermarkets remain "stagnant." The primary reason is believed to be that logistics costs and intermediary stages remain high, failing to timely reflect the downward trend in fuel prices.

Most notable commodities of the week

• Silver (+2.41%): Strongest growth thanks to a combination of industrial demand and safe-haven sentiment.
• Zinc (+1.82%): Positive performance as industrial production activities show signs of a slight recovery.
• Cocoa: Maintained a price above 5,000 USD/mt, 25% higher than the monthly average, indicating that a supply shortage crisis is still ongoing.

Forecast and recommendations for the coming week (July 6, 2026 - July 12, 2026)

Trend forecast:

• Metals Group: Continued upward trend if Russia-Ukraine tensions show no signs of cooling. Gold may test new resistance levels.
• Energy Group: Brent oil prices are forecast to fluctuate in the 70-75 USD/bbl range. It is necessary to closely monitor new sanctions from the EU or the response from OPEC+.
• Agricultural Group: Slight downward price pressure may appear due to the harvest season in some regions, but high transport costs will curb the decline in retail prices.

Risks to monitor:

• Logistics Costs: Vietnamese enterprises need to have contingency plans for surging maritime freight rates, which affect delivery schedules and input costs.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Financial and tax policies (such as banks providing customer data to tax authorities) may affect investor cash flow.
• Geopolitics: Any escalation in the Middle East or Eastern Europe could cause commodity prices to "dance" in just a few hours.

Recommendation: Import-export enterprises should lock in long-term shipping contracts to avoid freight rate volatility. Precious metal investors should maintain a safe weighting in their portfolios in the face of unpredictable war developments.