Sunflower Oil Market in October 2026: Establishing a New Price Floor After a Correction

Entering October 2026 (01/10/2026 - 31/10/2026), the global vegetable oil market in general and the sunflower oil segment in particular are witnessing a period of accumulation following significant volatility in the previous quarter. After reaching an average of 1,492.00 USD/ton in the preceding month, world sunflower oil prices have corrected downward by 102.00 USD/ton (equivalent to a cooling of 6.84%) and are maintaining stable trading around the 1,390.00 USD/ton threshold (equivalent to approximately 35,963,470 VND/ton). This cooling trend is opening up cost-stabilization opportunities for food processing enterprises while reshaping the supply-demand landscape for edible oils in both the Vietnamese and international markets throughout October.

1. Overview of World and Vietnam Sunflower Oil Price Trends

According to international commodity market statistics, the 30-day fluctuation range for spot crude and refined sunflower oil has been between 1,390.00 USD and 1,492.00 USD/ton. The current price of 1,390.00 USD/ton reflects a technical consolidation phase following the decline, bringing the market to a short-term supply-demand equilibrium zone.

In the domestic Vietnamese market, sunflower oil is a commodity almost 100% dependent on imports, primarily from the Black Sea region (Russia, Ukraine) and partly from Argentina or Europe. Consequently, any fluctuations on international exchanges and maritime logistics costs are quickly reflected in CIF import prices at the ports of Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City.

• Imported raw material prices: The landed price of crude sunflower oil arriving in Vietnam currently fluctuates around the 36,000,000 - 37,500,000 VND/ton range (including shipping and insurance costs, but excluding VAT and warehousing fees).
• Wholesale and retail market: Bottled refined sunflower oil (1L, 5L capacities) imported as finished products at major supermarkets maintains stable prices ranging from 58,000 - 68,000 VND/liter depending on the brand. Confectionery, canned food, and fast-food processing enterprises have begun promoting forward import contracts for the fourth quarter to serve the upcoming Lunar New Year peak season.

2. Analysis of Reasons for the Price Correction and Stabilization

The decline from the peak of 1,492.00 USD/ton to 1,390.00 USD/ton and the entry into a state of stability in October 2026 stem from a combination of technical and seasonal factors:

2.1. Pressure from the New Harvest in the Black Sea Region

September and October are the peak harvest and crushing periods for sunflower seeds in Russia and Ukraine—two powerhouses accounting for over 70% of global sunflower oil exports. Despite persistent geopolitical challenges, this year's crop output recorded relatively stable yields thanks to favorable weather conditions during the seed-filling stage in July and August. Abundant seed supplies flowing to crushing plants have caused spot supply to surge, pressuring exporters to lower their asking prices to clear warehouse space.

2.2. Substitution Effect from the Vegetable Oil Complex (Palm Oil and Soybean Oil)

Sunflower oil does not operate in isolation but faces intense competition from palm oil (Malaysia, Indonesia) and soybean oil (USA, Brazil). In recent months, palm oil production has entered its peak cycle in Southeast Asia, pulling $world palm oil prices$ down to highly competitive levels. The price spread between sunflower oil and palm oil widened to a record level when prices reached 1,492 USD/ton, prompting major importers like India and China to shift toward increasing imports of palm and soybean oil. To maintain market share in these key regions, sunflower oil was forced to cool down to the 1,390.00 USD/ton zone to restore commercial attractiveness.

2.3. Slowdown in Stockpiling Demand

Following massive procurement in the third quarter to hedge against supply chain disruption risks, vegetable oil inventories in major consuming countries such as India, the Middle East, and the EU have reached safe levels. In October 2026, importer sentiment shifted to a wait-and-see approach, limiting high-price chasing and only executing spot contracts when prices discounted to support zones.

3. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Sunflower Oil Prices

Beyond pure supply-demand factors, the sunflower oil market in October 2026 is strongly influenced by global macroeconomic variables:

3.1. Energy Market and Biofuel Policy

The correlation between Brent crude oil prices and the vegetable oil market has become increasingly tight as mandatory biofuel blending mandates in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia continue to rise. Vegetable oil is being drawn into the renewable energy industry, creating a solid price floor. Although sunflower oil is primarily used in the high-end food industry, the fact that soybean and palm oil prices are anchored to energy prices has prevented a deep slide in sunflower oil, keeping it at the 1,390 USD/ton floor instead of falling freely.

3.2. USD Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Maritime Transport Risk

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained its strength as central banks maintain cautious monetary paths, driving up import costs in local currencies for many Asian nations. For Vietnam, the USD/VND exchange rate remains high, meaning that while import prices have benefited from the 102 USD/ton drop in world prices, the magnitude of the decline in the domestic market is not as significant. Additionally, war risk insurance premiums in the Black Sea corridor and shipping rates through the Suez Canal remain high, creating a "hard" cost layer that is difficult to cut within the CIF price structure.

4. Market Outlook and Strategic Recommendations for Enterprises

Looking at October 2026 as a whole, the price of 1,390.00 USD/ton (equivalent to approximately 35.96 million VND/ton) is considered a relatively firm support zone for sunflower oil. The probability of prices falling significantly below the 1,350 USD/ton threshold is quite low, as consumption demand for the year-end holiday season in Asia and the West is preparing to accelerate from November.

Given this market context, supply chain participants should note the following strategic directions:

• For food production and processing enterprises in Vietnam: October 2026 is the golden time to lock in forward purchase contracts for shipments arriving in November and December 2026. The current discount has absorbed most of the seasonal pressure from the Black Sea, providing a good safety margin for the production costs of Tet confectionery and canned goods.
• For distributors and wholesalers: Maintain reasonable inventory turnover; do not hoard goods excessively with the expectation of a sharp price spike, as competitive supply from palm and soybean oil remains very abundant in the domestic market.
• For commodity investors: Closely monitor final harvest progress reports in Eastern Europe and weather developments for the planting season in South America, combined with tracking fluctuations in world crude oil prices to promptly detect trend reversal signals in the second half of October 2026.

In summary, October 2026 marks a valuable period of stability for the sunflower oil market following a cycle of high volatility. Understanding the nature of this price correction will help businesses in Vietnam optimize procurement costs and maintain competitiveness during the peak year-end business season.