Commodity Market Report for the Week of October 5, 2026 - October 11, 2026: Energy Prices Hit Record Highs, Vietnamese Agricultural Products Face Increased Competitive Pressure

The global commodity market for the week of October 5, 2026, to October 11, 2026, recorded a strong tug-of-war across various sectors, with energy prices anchored at historical peaks and agricultural products experiencing deep divergence. Tight physical supply has pushed crude oil spot prices to record highs, directly supporting Brent crude to surpass the $104/barrel mark and WTI to reach $91.92/barrel. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold and silver faced slight downward pressure but maintained historical price levels. For Vietnam, fierce competition in the rice export market, combined with fluctuations in the prices of industrial raw materials and animal feed, is creating an urgent need for cost optimization among businesses.

Energy

Global crude oil prices maintained record highs as the market recorded unprecedented surges in Dated Brent spot prices due to physical supply tensions. At the end of the trading week, Brent crude closed at $104.43/barrel (approximately 2,702,753 VND/barrel), a slight increase of 0.03%, while the monthly average reached $102.58/barrel. WTI crude recorded a 0.46% increase to $91.92/barrel (approximately 2,378,982 VND/barrel), while Dubai crude remained high at $108.96/barrel. In other fossil fuels, coal reached $148.85/ton and South African coal recorded $127.50/ton. Natural gas in the US fell slightly by 0.10% to $3.14/mmbtu, contrasting with the high level of $25.42/mmbtu in the European market.

The primary driver of energy price levels is the global shortage of spot supply, reflected in warnings about severely tightened physical oil markets. Complex geopolitical contexts and rising international logistics costs continue to reinforce the upward momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the energy sector is likely to maintain a consolidation state at high price levels, placing significant input cost pressure on transportation and manufacturing businesses in Vietnam.

Metals

The metal market witnessed slight profit-taking pressure in the precious metals group, while base industrial metals maintained stability. World gold prices closed the week at $4,177.94/toz (converted to approximately 130,366,049 VND/tael), a decrease of 0.10% but still higher than the monthly average of $4,160.46/toz. Silver fell 0.27% to $60.66/toz (equivalent to 1,892,925 VND/tael) and platinum traded around $1,698.00/toz. For industrial metals, copper rose 0.10% to 674.85 UScents/lb (approximately 385,054,820 VND/ton), aluminum stood at $3,055.70/ton, zinc reached $3,801.60/ton, and 62% Fe iron ore fell slightly by 0.17% to $90.75/dmtu.

The slight cooling of precious metals reflects a reallocation of cash flow ahead of monetary policy signals and the health of the banking and financial system. In the domestic market, the steel and metal industry faces many governance and restructuring challenges, exemplified by SMC changing its leadership team at 6 subsidiaries and divesting to consolidate cash flow amid challenging construction material consumption. Forecasts for next week suggest precious metals will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range around the peak, while industrial metals will depend heavily on the progress of public investment and infrastructure disbursement in Asia.

Agricultural Products

Agricultural products last week were highlighted by intense competitive pressure in the rice export market and strong growth in tropical agricultural commodities. The price of Vietnamese 5% broken rice remained at $418.50/ton (approximately 10,831,199 VND/ton), significantly lower than Thai 5% rice, which is at $482.00/ton. Notably, cocoa surged 1.82% to $5,768.00/mt (approximately 149,281,608 VND/ton), and sugar rose 1.03% to 20.53 UScents/lb. Robusta coffee continued to anchor at a record range of 3,493.00 UScents/kg (approximately 904,023,330 VND/ton, up 0.43%), while Arabica coffee adjusted slightly by 0.28% to 286.90 UScents/lb. Palm oil maintained a slight upward trend of 0.11% to 4,628.00 MYR/mt.

The main cause of this contrasting picture is supply volatility and trade competition strategies. Market news indicates that the Thai rice industry is at a major disadvantage as Vietnamese rice is priced more competitively by tens to hundreds of dollars per ton depending on the variety, combined with new supply pressure from the US and India. In the fertilizer segment, Urea remained stable at $438.50/mt and DAP at $802.50/mt, helping to partially stabilize seasonal production costs. Forecasts for next week suggest Vietnamese rice exports may receive new contracts due to cost advantages, while coffee and cocoa will maintain their high-price trend as crop-year supply has not shown clear improvement.

Food

The international meat and livestock product market maintained relative equilibrium with very narrow fluctuations over the past week. Beef prices reached 377.80 BRL/kg (approximately 1,560,812,696 VND/ton, up slightly by 0.40%), chicken remained at 8.39 BRL/kg (34,661,775 VND/ton, up 0.12%), and global pork fluctuated slightly around 75.15 UScents/lbs (approximately 42,878,965 VND/ton). Key animal feed products such as soybeans and wheat fell slightly to 1,284.25 UScents/bu and 670.50 UScents/bu, respectively; soybean meal closed the week at $363.70/ust.

The cooling of animal feed raw materials is easing the cost burden for the livestock industry in Vietnam; however, flat global meat prices indicate that consumer purchasing power has not yet seen a breakthrough. The trend for the food group next week is expected to remain stable, with no shock factors regarding supply or demand.

Most Notable Commodities of the Week

• Crude Oil (Dated Brent, WTI, Brent): Unprecedentedly high spot oil prices have pulled the entire crude oil group to multi-year peaks, reflecting disruptions or physical tensions in the upstream energy supply chain.
• Export Rice (Vietnam vs. Thailand): The large export price gap (Vietnamese 5% rice at $418.50/ton compared to Thailand's $482.00/ton) is creating a strong shift in global rice trade flows, opening up room for Vietnamese food companies to expand market share.
• Cocoa: Surged 1.82% to $5,768.00/mt, continuing to be a hot spot for industrial agricultural products due to the prolonged production shortage crisis in West Africa.
• Gold: Despite a slight decrease of 0.10% to $4,177.94/toz, the price level above 130 million VND/tael continues to affirm its role as a safe haven as international financial and banking markets face major restructuring.

Forecast and Recommendations for the Week of October 12, 2026 - October 18, 2026

The commodity market next week is expected to continue diverging based on geopolitical risk groups and agricultural production cycles.

• Trend Forecast by Sector:
  • Energy: Continuing the upward trend or moving sideways at the peak; Brent oil prices may retest the $105/barrel resistance level if spot supply tensions do not cool down.
  • Metals: Precious metals maintain a consolidation tug-of-war; industrial metals (copper, aluminum) have the potential for a slight recovery thanks to infrastructure development projects in Southeast Asia.
  • Agricultural Products: Vietnamese rice and coffee maintain a strong export position; sugar prices and cocoa continue to anchor high; grains for animal feed move sideways.
  • Food: Stable, with price fluctuations not exceeding 1 - 2%.
• Key Risk Factors to Monitor:
  • Geopolitical & Logistics Risks: Volatility in international shipping routes and regional tensions directly impact spot oil prices and shipping freight rates.
  • Financial & Monetary Policy: Capital increase issuance activities of the commercial banking system and USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations will directly affect the cost of importing raw materials (soybeans, wheat, metals).
  • Agricultural Trade Competition: Adjustments in export prices from Thailand and the participation of new rice varieties from the US could change the landscape of rice orders in the fourth quarter of 2026.