Commodity Market Summary for the Week of October 19, 2026 – October 25, 2026: Geopolitical Risks Keep Energy and Precious Metal Prices Elevated

The global commodity market for the week of October 19, 2026, to October 25, 2026, recorded a clear divergence with a trend of high price anchoring across many strategic commodities. Rising geopolitical instability following the outbreak of tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with cautious expectations surrounding the potential for a summit between the leaders of Russia, the US, and China, has driven safe-haven capital flows while simultaneously exerting cost pressures on the international raw materials market.

Energy

Global crude oil prices continued to anchor at high levels amid concerns over supply disruption risks in the Middle East. Closing the session on October 25, 2026, Brent crude traded at 115.39 USD/barrel (equivalent to approximately 2,981,966 VND/barrel), while WTI crude closed the week at 101.99 USD/barrel (approximately 2,635,677 VND/barrel), far exceeding the monthly averages of 106.62 USD and 95.11 USD/barrel, respectively. Dubai crude oil also maintained a stable momentum at 111.68 USD/barrel (+1.07% compared to the previous period).

The event where Iran announced the downing of a US drone following stern warnings from Washington has fueled risk-aversion sentiment in the oil market. The direct threat to the security of transport through the Strait of Hormuz has caused risk premiums to rise sharply, overshadowing concerns about declining industrial consumption demand.

Items such as natural gas and coal also maintained positive volatility to meet the upcoming winter energy storage demand. Natural gas in the US recorded an increase of +4.67%, reaching 2.64 USD/mmbtu (approximately 2,518 VND/m³), while imported LNG prices in Japan reached 31.42 USD/mmbtu (+2.58%). Benchmark coal prices held at 150.70 USD/ton and South African coal reached 128.85 USD/ton.

Outlook for next week: The energy group is expected to continue fluctuating within a high range, with Brent crude maintaining the psychological support level of 110 - 115 USD/barrel as the involved parties have yet to reach an agreement to de-escalate military tensions.

Metals

Precious metals remained the top priority for asset accumulation among global investors throughout the past week. Spot gold prices on October 25, 2026, were recorded at 3,994.00 USD/toz (equivalent to approximately 124,441,098 VND/tael), nearing the 4,000 USD/toz mark. Silver prices closed the week at 53.88 USD/toz and platinum reached 1,562.40 USD/toz.

Demand for industrial metals was cautious but showed positive divergence in groups serving high-tech infrastructure. Global tin prices rose sharply by +2.26% to 50,089.00 USD/ton (approximately 1.29 billion VND/ton), reflecting tightened supply and recovering demand from the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Conversely, copper reached 647.60 UScents/lb, aluminum reached 3,047.30 USD/ton, and 62% Fe iron ore remained at 90.83 USD/dmtu, facing tug-of-war pressure as the market awaits clearer economic signals from China.

Outlook for next week: Gold is likely to continue testing the historical resistance zone of 4,000 USD/toz. Basic industrial metals such as copper and aluminum will maintain a sideways accumulation trend.

Agricultural Products

The international agricultural market experienced a relatively stable trading week with input cost pressures showing signs of a slight uptick. Arabica coffee closed the week at 307.45 UScents/lb (+0.47%), while Robusta coffee reached 3,228.00 UScents/kg (equivalent to 834,195,900 VND/ton). Rubber futures reached 254.30 JPY/kg (approximately 55,651,012 VND/ton) and TSR20 rubber reached 255.90 USD/kg.

The food market recorded Vietnamese 5% broken rice holding at 418.50 USD/ton (approximately 10,815,086 VND/ton), while global rough rice reached 17.52 USD/CWT (+2.64%). In the segment of imported and supplied agricultural materials, urea fertilizer increased by +2.37% to 453.00 USD/ton (approximately 11,706,653 VND/ton) and DAP fertilizer stood at 802.50 USD/ton, creating certain pressure on the seasonal cost margins of domestic farmers.

Vietnamese agricultural export enterprises are indirectly benefiting from the trend of expanding their presence into modern foreign retail channels, typically seen in the deep penetration of Vietnamese agricultural products into major supermarket chains in South Korea, supporting output liquidity for key commodities.

Outlook for next week: Agricultural products will maintain a stable price floor; however, high fertilizer and fuel costs may push grain and industrial crop prices up slightly in the short term.

Food

The food group fluctuated stably in the global market but maintained positive consumption momentum in the domestic market. On the international market, chicken prices traded at 8.29 BRL/kg (+2.47%), beef reached 381.40 BRL/kg, and global pork closed at 65.58 UScents/lb (equivalent to 37,360,019 VND/ton).

In Vietnam, the food and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry continues to demonstrate superior stability thanks to regulation and solid supply chains from leading enterprises. Market statistics show that two representatives, Masan and Vinamilk, hold nearly 74% of the total market capitalization of the entire food industry, acting as a pivotal role in helping to stabilize retail prices of processed foods in the context of high global logistics and input material costs.

Outlook for next week: The domestic meat and processed food market will continue to be stable; abundant supply will support good control of the consumer price index.

Most notable commodities of the week

• Brent crude oil (115.39 USD/barrel): Anchored firmly at the peak as the US-Iran conflict enters a new tense phase with the drone downing incident.
• Gold (3,994.00 USD/toz): Capital seeking a safe haven pushed gold prices close to the historical mark of 4,000 USD/toz (equivalent to more than 124.4 million VND/tael).
• US natural gas (+4.67%, 2.64 USD/mmbtu): Strongest growth in the energy group due to inventory accumulation activities ahead of early-season cold fronts.
• Urea fertilizer (+2.37%, 453.00 USD/ton): High input energy costs continue to reflect directly on chemical fertilizer selling prices.

Forecast and recommendations for the week of October 26, 2026 – November 1, 2026

Trend forecast by industry group:

• Energy: Maintain an upward - sideways trend with high amplitude. WTI oil is expected to fluctuate in the 98 - 104 USD/barrel range; Brent will fluctuate from 112 - 118 USD/barrel.
• Metals: Precious metals maintain upward momentum; industrial metals diverge, depending on macroeconomic data from developed economies.
• Agricultural Products & Food: Basic prices are stable; the vegetable oil and fertilizer groups maintain a high anchoring trend.

Key risk factors to monitor:

• US-Iran military tensions: Any military retaliation could trigger a new wave of price increases for the global oil market.
• Summit diplomacy: Signals preparing for a high-level meeting between the leaders of the US, China, and Russia will shape trade expectations and global supply chains.
• Logistics costs and exchange rates: Vietnamese import-export enterprises need to proactively use hedging tools for exchange rate risks and fluctuations in shipping freight rates due to high crude oil prices.