Chicken Market Report October 2026: High-Level Stability and Supply Chain Challenges

The global poultry market in October 2026 is witnessing notable developments as chicken prices in key markets continue to maintain their growth momentum and establish a new price floor. Following a period of high volatility in the third quarter, entering October 2026 (from October 1, 2026, to October 31, 2026), both international and domestic Vietnamese markets have shown a state of tension but with a tendency to anchor firmly at high price levels, reflecting pressure from production costs as well as expectations for year-end holiday consumption demand.

1. Overview of global chicken price trends in October 2026

In the international market, Brazil – the world's largest poultry exporter – continues to serve as the benchmark for global poultry prices. According to trading data updated in October 2026, benchmark export chicken prices have maintained stability at high levels.

As of October 23, 2026, traded chicken prices were recorded at 8.50 BRL/kg (equivalent to approximately 35,116,220 VND/ton). This price level indicates a solid sideways trend after hitting a 30-day peak of 8.51 BRL/kg (approximately 35,157,533 VND/ton) on October 16. The fluctuation range over the past 30 days has been between 8.28 BRL/kg and 8.51 BRL/kg (equivalent to 34,207,330 – 35,157,533 VND/ton).

• Average price for October 2026: Reached 8.40 BRL/kg (approximately 34,703,088 VND/ton), a significant increase compared to the average of 7.98 BRL/kg (approximately 32,967,934 VND/ton) in September 2026. The month-on-month increase of over 5.2% reflects a positive shift in base export prices.
• Short-term fluctuations: In the week from mid-month to October 23, chicken prices remained absolutely stable at the 8.50 BRL/kg mark throughout the sessions of October 20, 21, 22, and 23, 2026, with a change of only about +0.12% compared to the previous week's calculation cycle.

The stability at this month's peak indicates that major importers in Asia and the Middle East have begun to accept the new price floor, preparing strategic reserves for the fourth quarter of 2026.

2. Chicken market in Vietnam: Recovery signals and seasonal preparation

In line with global trends, the poultry market in Vietnam in October 2026 recorded relatively positive developments, with differentiation between chicken segments:

• White-feathered broiler chickens: In the Southeast and Mekong Delta regions, ex-farm white chicken prices remained in the range of 32,000 – 36,000 VND/kg. In the North, prices were slightly higher, fluctuating around the 34,000 – 38,000 VND/kg threshold depending on farm scale. The rate of market supply was recorded at a good level thanks to stable consumption demand from industrial kitchens and fast-food chains.
• Free-range and colored-feather chickens: Prices for free-range native chickens and crossbreeds remained higher, ranging from 58,000 – 72,000 VND/kg depending on the locality and farming method. Small and medium-sized farms are currently focusing on herd management to prepare for the Lunar New Year sales cycle.
• Imported chicken meat: Imported frozen chicken parts (such as leg quarters, wings, and breasts) from Brazil and the US recorded a slight price increase due to higher import costs converted in line with the upward trend of the BRL and exchange rate fluctuations.

3. Analysis of factors driving price fluctuations

The maintenance of the 8.50 BRL/kg price zone on the global market and the price support in the domestic market stem from a complex interaction between supply and demand:

Feed costs remain anchored at high levels

Although international grain prices such as corn and soybean meal have cooled down compared to the peak periods of previous years, the cost of raw materials for animal feed entering October 2026 remains under pressure from logistics costs and agricultural supply protection policies in some South American countries. Feed costs account for 65 - 70% of total production costs, forcing farms to keep wholesale prices at break-even or slightly profitable levels, unable to decrease significantly.

Disease pressure and biosecurity control

The threat of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) remains a persistent variable in many major production areas in North America and some European countries. Although Brazil has maintained disease-free status in key industrial production states, strict quarantine measures have increased operating costs and limited the speed of immediate herd expansion.

Year-end consumption cycle factors

October of each year is the time when food processing plants and retail distribution chains increase the signing of import contracts to serve Christmas and New Year demand. This strong demand creates a solid support, preventing localized oversupply.

4. Impact of macroeconomic factors

Beyond the internal factors of the poultry industry, the global macroeconomic picture in October 2026 plays a core role in shaping commercial costs:

• Exchange rate fluctuations: The Brazilian Real (BRL) has adjusted flexibly against the strength of the USD. When converted to VND, the price of 8.50 BRL/kg reaches approximately 35.1 million VND/ton, reflecting significant input capital costs for frozen chicken import businesses in Vietnam.
• Logistics and shipping costs: International maritime transport costs remain high due to the prolonged impact of shifting shipping routes to avoid geopolitical hotspots. Extended transit times increase cold storage costs, pushing Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) prices higher.
• Consumer inflation and substitution behavior: As beef prices and pork prices in many international markets remain anchored at high levels, chicken continues to be seen as the most reasonable alternative source of animal protein for average consumers. This wave of consumption shift provides active support for widespread chicken demand.

5. Market outlook and recommendations

Based on current price indicators, the chicken market in the remaining weeks of the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to maintain a sideways or slightly upward trend. The October average (8.40 BRL/kg) shows a much firmer price floor compared to September (7.98 BRL/kg), with little likelihood of a deep decline in the short term.

For market participants in Vietnam:

• Processing and import enterprises: Need to closely monitor exchange rate developments and negotiate forward contracts early to secure supply for the peak consumption season of November - December 2026, avoiding the risk of rising shipping freight rates near the Tet holiday.
• Domestic farmers: Need to focus on optimizing the Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR), tightening biosecurity procedures to prevent seasonal diseases, and calculating reasonable harvest times to take advantage of the year-end peak price wave instead of uncontrollably restocking.

In summary, October 2026 marks a period of strategic stability for the chicken market at high price levels. The fragile balance between input cost pressure and market purchasing power will be the focal point to continue observing in the coming months.