Commodity Market Week of 06/22/2026 - 06/28/2026: High Volatility Driven by Geopolitical Pressures and Extreme Weather

The global commodity market in the week from 06/22 to 06/28/2026 recorded complex developments as geopolitical hotspots in the Middle East and Eastern Europe flared up again, combined with extreme weather phenomena in Europe. Energy and agricultural price indices faced significant upward pressure, while the precious metals group continued to maintain its position as a safe-haven asset against global macroeconomic instability.

GROUP: Energy

Crude oil prices recorded impressive growth over the past week due to concerns about supply disruptions in key regions. Specifically, as of 06/28/2026:

• Brent crude: Reached 71.99 USD/bbl, a strong increase of 4.34% compared to the previous week.
• WTI crude: Traded at 69.23 USD/bbl, up 3.74%.
• US Natural Gas: Increased slightly by 0.49% to 3.28 USD/mmbtu.

Main causes: The oil price rally was driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East as Iran declared retaliation against the US, putting the Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz on high alert. At the same time, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries caused major fires, directly threatening global fuel supply capacity. In the Vietnamese market, this volatility could put pressure on domestic gasoline prices in the next operating period.

GROUP: Agricultural Products

The agricultural market this week witnessed a clear divergence, with industrial raw materials showing the strongest gains.

• Rubber: Recorded a sharp increase of 6.02%, reaching 210.80 JPY/kg (approximately 46,131,472 VND/ton).
• Sugar: Increased 2.91% to 14.51 UScents/lb.
• Cocoa: Continued its hot rally of 2.9%, reaching 5,095.00 USD/mt, significantly higher than the monthly average of 4,222.71 USD.
• Arabica Coffee: Traded at 273.20 UScents/lb, up 1.16%.

Main causes: The scorching heatwave in France and parts of Europe not only caused human casualties but also severely impacted crop prospects. Additionally, logistics issues (such as the profit divergence between Hai Phong and Gemadept seaports) and rising shipping costs due to risks in the Gulf region pushed the prices of key agricultural exports higher.

GROUP: Metals

Precious metals continued to be a magnet for capital flows as central banks stepped up gold reserves.

• Gold: Closed the week at 4,087.00 USD/toz (equivalent to 129,584,651 VND/tael), up 1.49%.
• Silver: Increased 1.61% to 58.78 USD/toz.
• Copper: Increased slightly by 0.24% to reach 619.48 UScents/lb, although still lower than the monthly average (634.21 UScents).
• Aluminum and Zinc: Recorded increases of 0.81% and 1.71%, respectively.

Main causes: The net buying trend of gold by global central banks is a solid foundation for precious metal prices. In Vietnam, domestic gold prices recorded a record spread, exceeding world prices by up to 19 million VND/tael, reflecting the massive hoarding demand of the public in the face of economic fluctuations and monetary policy from the State Bank.

GROUP: Food

Food prices maintained a stable state with low volatility.

• Beef: Increased slightly by 0.4% to 338.65 BRL/kg.
• Pork: Increased 0.24% to reach 92.93 USD/lbs.
• Chicken: Remained stable at 7.29 BRL/kg.

Main causes: Global food supply generally continues to meet consumption demand well. However, the weakening of the German industrial sector and supply chain difficulties in China (such as fierce competition in the taxi and robotaxi industry) are indirectly affecting consumer sentiment and the circulation of food commodities in major markets.

Most notable commodities of the week

Rubber and Crude oil are the two focal commodities this week. Rubber rose sharply by more than 6% due to supply concerns and maritime transport disruptions. Brent crude and WTI rose nearly 4%, directly reflecting geopolitical risks from Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Conversely, industrial metals such as Platinum (-1.12% compared to the beginning of the week and much lower than the monthly average) showed weakening manufacturing demand in economic powerhouses like Germany.

Forecast and recommendations for the coming week (06/29/2026 - 07/05/2026)

Trend forecast:

• Energy: Expected to remain high or increase slightly if attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz show no signs of cooling down.
• Metals: Gold will remain the preferred investment channel. Investors should be cautious with domestic gold prices due to the excessively high spread compared to the world market.
• Agricultural products: Closely monitor weather developments in Europe and reports on drought conditions, as this could continue to push sugar prices and grains higher.

Risk factors to monitor:

• Geopolitics: Any new military moves from Iran or the escalation of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian energy facilities.
• Financial policy: Directives from the Vietnamese Government requiring the State Bank to study increasing banking system liquidity from State Treasury deposits could impact exchange rates and interest rates, indirectly affecting the prices of imported goods.
• Weather: Prolonged heatwaves in Europe and earthquakes in South America (Venezuela) could affect mineral extraction and agricultural production.

Recommendation: Import-export businesses should proactively implement commodity price hedging strategies and closely monitor seaport logistics costs to optimize business plans in a volatile market environment.