Commodity Market Summary Report: May 18, 2026

The global commodity market during the week of May 18 to May 24, 2026, recorded mixed fluctuations with a prevailing slight upward trend, particularly in the energy and precious metals sectors, amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. Concerns regarding supply in the Middle East, specifically reports related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's uranium enrichment status, combined with legal developments in the domestic Vietnamese market, have created a highly volatile market picture.

SECTOR: Energy

Crude oil and natural gas prices maintained their growth momentum due to pressure from geopolitical hotspots and rising import costs in Vietnam. Brent crude oil ended the week at 103.94 USD/bbl (up 1.33%), while WTI oil reached 97.00 USD/bbl (up 0.68%). US natural gas recorded the strongest growth in the sector at 3.21%, reaching 2.92 USD/mmbtu.

Causes: News of Iran rejecting the agreement to halt uranium enrichment and the potential for disrupted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pressured global energy supplies. In Vietnam, data shows that petroleum import costs have nearly doubled, reflecting border trade cost pressures and rising domestic demand.
Outlook: The trend for the coming week may continue to rise if tensions in Hormuz are not eased and gas agreements between Russia and neighboring EU countries continue to divide the market.

SECTOR: Agricultural Products

The agricultural market this week witnessed a breakthrough in key commodities such as coffee and rice, while oilseeds remained stable. Arabica coffee closed the session on May 24 at 271.56 UScents/lb (+0.67%), and rice prices (US) reached 12.99 USD/CWT (+0.15%). Rubber traded around 220.80 JPY/kg, maintaining a stable momentum.

Causes: News of "Coffee and rice prices rising simultaneously" from Thailand and other major exporting countries directly impacted investor sentiment. Political instability in Cambodia (dismissal of high-ranking officials) also raised concerns regarding the agricultural supply chain in Southeast Asia.
Outlook: The agricultural sector, especially coffee and rice, is forecast to maintain high price levels due to concerns that climate change (news regarding Mount Fuji and strange natural phenomena) may affect cultivation cycles.

SECTOR: Metals

Both precious and industrial metals recorded positive growth, reflecting safe-haven demand and the recovery of infrastructure projects. Gold held at a high of 4,516.80 USD/toz (+0.58%), equivalent to approximately 143.5 million VND/tael. Silver and Copper rose strongly by 1.69% and 1.27% respectively, with Copper prices reaching 646.00 UScents/lb.

Causes: Large enterprises like Gemadept pouring 300 billion VND into new projects in Hai Phong indicates a shift of capital flow into infrastructure and logistics, boosting demand for industrial metals. Additionally, instability from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and asset sanctions related to Kazakhstan have driven investors toward gold and silver.
Outlook: Precious metals may see a slight correction after a series of hot-streak days, but copper and aluminum will maintain their upward momentum thanks to public investment and energy infrastructure projects.

SECTOR: Food

Fresh food prices fluctuated within a narrow range, indicating a temporary balance between supply and demand in the international market. The pork market recorded a slight increase of 0.76% to reach 95.85 USD/lbs. Beef and chicken remained almost flat with negligible changes (Beef +0.09%).

Causes: Supply from South American markets (Brazil) remains stable, although global logistics costs are rising due to energy prices. In Vietnam, the prosecution of leaders of major enterprises over the past week may cause short-term cautious sentiment regarding the disbursement of large-scale livestock projects.
Outlook: Food prices are expected to stabilize in the coming week; however, close monitoring of grain price fluctuations (corn, soybeans) is necessary as these are critical inputs for the livestock industry.

Most Notable Commodities of the Week

Natural Gas (+3.21%): The strongest gainer due to complex developments in energy policy between Russia, the EU, and countries such as Armenia and Romania.
Silver (+1.69%): Attracted stronger capital flows than gold, acting as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial raw material.
Sugar (+1.54%): Recorded stable growth to reach 14.67 UScents/lb, reflecting tightening global sugar supplies.

Forecast and Recommendations for the Coming Week (May 25, 2026 – May 31, 2026)

Trend Forecast: The commodity market next week will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic news in Vietnam and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The energy and precious metals sectors are expected to remain the focus of capital flows.

Sector Forecasts:
- Energy: Continue to rise slightly; pay attention to new announcements from Iran and vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Agricultural Products: Rice and coffee may hit new peaks if production reports in Southeast Asia are not favorable.
- Metals: Copper and Aluminum will benefit from new infrastructure investment flows.
Risk Factors to Monitor:
- Domestic Legal Issues: The prosecution of leaders of major enterprises in Vietnam may affect market liquidity and investor sentiment in the short term.
- Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan tensions regarding asset seizures could set a bad precedent for international trade.
- Financial Policy: Bank decisions regarding changes in insurance partners and sales strategies may affect credit flows for commodity import-export businesses.

Recommendation: Import-export businesses should proactively lock in prices for the energy sector to avoid the risk of rising transportation costs. Individual investors should be cautious with precious metals as prices are already at historical highs.